A Winning Democratic Presidential Candidate

Democrats must take a strategic approach to the nomination of a successful presidential candidate. Even though they feel people should be outraged by Trump and his narcissistic behavior, they must remember how they doubted people would take him seriously in 2016. No amount of belief will suffice for action. Not one vote should be taken for granted.

To oust Trump from office, Democrats must not broadly and mistakenly paint his supporters as “deplorable” again – doing so only serves to create deep division and alienates those who cast their votes for “the lesser of two evils.” To win, Democrats must increase turnout among their base – including minorities, women, and the young – while gaining among white, non-college-educated voters.

In November 2018 midterms, they did just that. Democrats further broadened their appeal by running better and more diverse candidates who symbolized a more inclusive America. And, they elected a record number of women while activating many more women as volunteers and donors. They ran strong nonwhite candidates and drew more minority voters. They supported younger candidates and attracted a greater percentage of millennials. LGBTQ Democrats won some tough races.

Respecting diversity is an important key to victory, but not the only needful strategy. Democrats must not write off blue collar whites, a group that still comprises 44 percent of the electorate; 50 percent in every Midwestern state; over 60 percent in Indiana, Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin; and 80 percent in key Pennsylvania counties – the places that made Trump president.

Choose the Right Candidate

After one term of Trump, does the country yearn for a return to normalcy? Credibility would seem to be a most needed quality for a successful Democratic candidate. Considering Trump's propensity to lie and to incite fear and hatred with nationalistic and often bigoted rhetoric, it would seem a more dignified candidate would appeal.

One group of candidates is stressing the importance of controlling the center of the electorate and winning center-right independents and soft Trump supporters who may have grown disillusioned more with the turmoil than the policy choices of his presidency.

But, according to James Carville, the renowned campaign manager for Bill Clinton in 1992, the party's liberal vanguard may be focusing too narrowly to reach the broad audience that may be available against Trump. He says …

"I think that the country does not want to reelect Trump, and my great worry is Democrats can talk them out of that. We are pushing ourselves to a place that's dangerous when we get to the general election."

Perhaps a dose of reality – no matter how painful the sting to women and minority candidates – is apropos in 2020. A survey found that 82 percent of Democrats and independents say it's important to nominate "someone who can beat Trump." A large majority (74 percent) of Democratic and independent respondents said they were "personally comfortable with a female president," but only 33 percent believed their neighbors would be. Sad, but true?

More than half of Democratic voters overall (56%) believe a white male candidate is the most likely to beat President Donald Trump. Voters chose a white male more often than other generic categories regardless of whom they support—and in most cases regardless of their own ethnicity and gender – (June 2019) USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times national tracking poll shows. Is it a time to favor electability over equitable advancement?

However, Don't Abandon Priorities

The Democratic Party must work hard and stick to their priorities. It is tempting to run on the “just defeat Trump” ticket, but the party must clearly support a platform for a better America. Voters need to understand the value of making a needed change. Democrats must make it clear they will …

Combat climate change and protect the environment.

Fight to expand health-care coverage and reduce costs.

Find ways to make the tax code more progressive.

Support raising the minimum wage.

Work to raise public school standards and reform the head start program.

Support the long-term aim of having low-cost, publicly funded college education with low tuition fees.

Fight for equal opportunity for all Americans regardless of sex, age, race, ethnicity, sexual orientation, gender identity, religion, creed, or national origin.

Endorse the principle that no one should face discrimination based on their gender, sexual orientation, and gender identity.

Grassroots To Victory

People are envisioning, electing, and beginning to enact a truly progressive agenda to advance the nation’s democratic ideals of economic fairness, social justice, and equal opportunity for all. These people are mainly Democrats, not Conservative Republicans, and certainly not dyed-in-the-MAGA Trump supporters. One can expect Trumpers to stay with their candidate no matter the logic of the opposition.

Democrats must understand the need for exciting their base. They must now move out to the grassroots reality of ordinary Americans. The future of the party doesn’t require moving left, center, or right. Those are ideological positions. First, Democrats need to organize voters year-round. And second, they must recruit the same type of coalition of people of color, women, Millennials, and progressive whites that elected Barack Obama twice.

Jenifer Fernandez Ancona, a co-founder of Way to Win, says …

“Our swing voter is not someone we’re trying to move from red to blue. It’s nonvoter to voter.”

Hastings College of the Law Professor Joan Williams, author of White Working Class:Overcoming Class Cluelessness in America, believes Democrats don’t need to choose between working-class white voters and the old Obama coalition. They have the money and grassroots energy to reach out to both in all parts of the country.

Williams says …

“It’s a false choice. These races are so close that Democrats need everybody.”

Of course, Democrats need to instill a vision that goes beyond a Trumpless White House. They must offer a positive agenda and not succumb to the temptation to simply attack the policies and character of Trump, as valid as such criticisms are. The large panel of presidential candidates should find a unifying platform that will unite all the party's supporters, not push ideas that differentiate them from one another. In short, they need more than well-argued politics to appeal to the masses of potential Democratic supporters.

The Democratic Party must motivate the electorate. Don Baer, White House Communications Director for President Bill Clinton, says elections are not won, for better or for worse, in rational detailed debates about the fine points of policy; however, they largely turn on visceral issues and are decided in the guts of voters rather than in their minds.

And last, the party must be honest with itself – it must acknowledge the failures of the recent past. Political success depends less on communicating the specifics of a policy and more on demonstrating that the successful candidate understands the needs and feelings of voters.

So, will Democratic primary voters prefer a nonwhite, nonmale candidate or stick to the the common belief that it’s safer to choose a white man for the general election? (Though a new study suggests that strategy could backfire, because a white male nominee could lower Democratic enthusiasm in the general election.)

A Politico survey found, “at least in the 2020 Democratic presidential campaign, candidates are likely to be viewed more favorably for being nonwhite and nonmale – but not for being nonstraight.” The survey suggests that a nonwhite or nonmale candidate is likely to emerge as a real contender – and when that happens, their identity will be a selling point rather than a hindrance.

Back to Square One for the best Democratic candidate to defeat Trump? Perhaps. In fact, many of us feel we are merely holding on in a topsy-turvy environment that more closely resembles a white nationalist past than a progressive present. Short of abandoning important beliefs on gun control and abortion, we Democrats find ourselves open to new strategies to appeal to hardcore centrists. Challenge accepted. New vision with purpose in progress.