The Doomsday Clock -- Closest to Midnight Since Its Creation

“On January 23, 2020, the “Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists”, which takes stock of the threats posed by nuclear war and climate change each year, moved the Doomsday Clock to 100 seconds before midnight. We are now measuring how close the world is to catastrophe in seconds -- not hours, or even minutes. It is the closest to Doomsday we have ever been since the clock was created in 1947.”

– thebulletin.org

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists was founded in 1947 by those who worked on the Manhattan Project during World War II, and now includes 13 Nobel Laureates on the board. The Bulletin issued a statement on January 23 that read …

"Humanity continues to face two simultaneous existential dangers—nuclear war and climate change—that are compounded by a threat multiplier, cyber-enabled information warfare, that undercuts society's ability to respond. The international security situation is dire, not just because these threats exist, but because world leaders have allowed the international political infrastructure for managing them to erode."

The Executive Committee of the group is comprised of Former United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon, former Presdent of Ireland and United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Mary Robinson, former governor of California Jerry Brown, and former U.S. Secretary of Defense William Perry.

Their statement of concern acknowledges growing tensions …

“On the nuclear threat, we've seen unprecedented brinksmanship over the past 12 months by half a dozen nations, the termination of major arms control agreements, a dizzying proliferation of nuclear weapons, and an unsettling amount of loose talk about the mistaken idea that limited nuclear warfare is somehow possible or 'winnable.'”

Other recent developments have added to the threat. The Bulletin says …

“We share a common concern over the failure of the multilateral system to address the existential threats we face. From the US' withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and the Iran nuclear deal, to the deadlock at nuclear disarmament talks and division at the UN Security Council – our mechanisms for collaboration are being undermined when we need them the most.”

The group also expressed anxiety about the lack of activism and action by national governments on the major threat of climate change and cyber-enabled disinformation sowing distrust in “science, institutions, and nations.”

The Doomsday Clock is a symbol that represents the likelihood of a man-made global catastrophe. The Clock is a metaphor for threats to humanity from unchecked scientific and technical advances. It represents the hypothetical global catastrophe as "midnight" and the Bulletin's opinion on how close the world is to a global catastrophe as a number of "minutes" to midnight, assessed in January of each year.

Be it a nuclear war, climate change, or some other man-made catastrophe, there exists a real possibility that devastation of the planet is possible … and, even more frightening is that it is well on its way.

In 1947, during the Cold War, the Clock was started at seven minutes to midnight. "Midnight" has a deeper meaning to it besides the constant threat of war. Scientists decide what “Midnight” and "global catastrophe" really mean in a particular year.

The Clock is not set and reset in real time as events occur; rather than respond to each and every crisis as it happens, the Science and Security Board meets twice annually to discuss global events in a deliberative manner. The closest nuclear war threat, the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, reached crisis, climax, and resolution before the Clock could be set to reflect that possible doomsday.

The Doomsday Clock is not a forecasting tool. Instead, it reflects events that have already occurred and existing trends. The Science and Security Board tracks numbers and statistics – looking, for example, “at the number and kinds of nuclear weapons in the world, the parts per million of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the degree of acidity in our oceans, and the rate of sea level rise.” The board also takes account of “leaders’ and citizens’ efforts to reduce dangers, and efforts by institutions – whether of governments, markets, or civil society organizations – to follow through on negotiated agreements.”

Reasons For the Real and Present Danger

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists reports the board's decision to move the clock less than a full minute – something it has never before done – is because …

"Disturbing comments about the use and proliferation of nuclear weapons made by Donald Trump, as well as the expressed disbelief in the overwhelming scientific consensus on climate change by both Trump and several of his cabinet appointees, affected the Board's decision, as did the emergence of strident nationalism worldwide."

Other influencing factors listed in the BPA report include “doubts over the future of the Iran nuclear deal, threats to cyber security and the rise of fake news.”

The board's decision to move the clock less than a full minute - something it has never before done - is because Trump has only recently taken office and many of his cabinet nominations are not installed in government.

The Doomsday Clock is not just some outlandish and theoretical timetable. It is a time line for humanity, and an agitation for change before it is too late. Journalist David Grossman appropriately asserted: “The Clock is one of the rarest things available to scientists: an easily recognizable icon that can grab a passerby with no scientific background.” Moreover, it isn't aiming for total accuracy. Instead, it's a symbol of global threats, and a way to inform the public about threats to the survival and development of humanity.

Do you take the Clock literally? If you review recent developments once more, you may find credence in this symbol of awareness. Those recent reinforcements for the move closer to midnight again …

Termination of major arms agreements,

Proliferation of nuclear weapons,

Climate change,

Cyber-enabled information warfare,

Division at the UN Security Council,

Unsettling amount of loose talk

The present threatening situation makes me think of a Chambers Brothers song from 1966 – “Time Has Come Today.” It seems old lyrics often come around again to give us new insights.

“Time has come today
Young hearts can go their way
Can't put it off another day
I don't care what others say
They say we don't listen anyway
Time has come today”

From “Time Has Come Today” by the Chambers Brothers

“Tic-toc” … the relentless rhythm can be an foreboding sound.