Cliodynamics -- Mathematical Models and Trump's Elite Overproduction

“Empires rise and fall, populations and economies boom and bust, world religions spread or wither … What are the mechanisms underlying such dynamical processes in history? Are there ‘laws of history’? We do not lack hypotheses to investigate – to take just one instance, more than two hundred explanations have been proposed for why the Roman Empire fell.

“But we still don’t know which of these hypotheses are plausible, and which should be rejected. More importantly, there is no consensus on what general mechanisms explain the collapse of historical empires.”

– Peter Turchin, Russian-American scientist,
specializing in cultural evolution

Cliodynamics (from “Clio,” the muse of history, and “dynamics,” the study of why things change with time) is a discipline which plots historical events by a series of mathematical measures. The discipline was developed at the start of the century by the scientist Peter Turchin.

Those who follow Turchin and Cliodynamics believe in a systematic application of the scientific method to history: verbal theories should be translated into mathematical models, precise predictions derived, and then rigorously tested on empirical material. In short, history needs to become an analytical, predictive science. Ultimately the aim is to discover general principles that explain the functioning and dynamics of actual historical societies.

What does a mathematically driven, Cliodynamic model reveal about the general principles that apply to the society of 2020? Let's investigate. Remember, this is a science-based forecast, not a “prophecy.” It’s based on solid social science. As much as you may dismiss the findings, you should not resist the attempt to understand the present conditions in a divided America.

According to Peter Turchin, Cliodynamics did not predict that Donald Trump would become the American President in 2016. But, it did predict rising social and political instability. And, Turchin believes that unless something is done, instability will continue to rise.

The presidential election confirmed Turchin's forecast. The country seems to be well on track for the 2020s instability peak. This crest of unreliability threatens the welfare of the nation in many ways.

Turchin's model tracks a number of factors. Some reflect developments that have been noticed and extensively discussed:

Growing income and wealth inequality,

Stagnating and even declining well-being of most Americans, and

Growing political fragmentation and governmental dysfunction.

Most social scientists and political commentators tend to focus on a particular slice of the problem. It’s not broadly appreciated that these developments are all interconnected. It's this linkage that makes for the greatest instability.

Two factors in Turchin's model – popular immiseration (the stagnation and decline of living standards) and the declining fiscal health of the state (resulting from falling state revenues and rising expenses) – are very important contributors.

However, to Turchin, one more factor is the key to the peak of instability: most commentators have missed the key role of “elite overproduction” in driving waves of political violence, both in historical societies and in our own. Cliodynamic research on past societies demonstrates that elite overproduction is, by far, the most important of the three main historical drivers of social instability and political violence.

Elite overproduction generally leads to more intra-elite competition that gradually undermines the spirit of cooperation, which is followed by ideological polarization and fragmentation of the political class. This happens because the more contenders there are, the more of them end up on the losing side. A large class of disgruntled elite-wannabes, often well-educated and highly capable, has been denied access to elite positions.

“Intense intra-elite competition leads to the rise of rival power networks, which increasingly subvert the rules of political engagement to get ahead of the opposition. Instead of competing on their own merits, or the merits of their political platforms, candidates increasingly rely on 'dirty tricks' such as character assassination (and, in historical cases, literal assassination).

“As a result, excessive competition results in the unraveling of prosocial, cooperative norms (this is a general phenomenon that is not limited to political life). Elite overproduction in the US has already driven up the intensity of intra-elite competition.

“Another clear sign is the unraveling of social norms regulating political discourse and process that has become glaringly obvious during the 2016 presidential election. Analysis of past societies indicates that, if intra-elite competition is allowed to escalate, it will increasingly take more violent forms. A typical outcome of this process is a massive outbreak of political violence, often ending in a state collapse, a revolution, or a civil war (or all of the above).”

– Peter Turchin

In the last three or four decades real wages of unskilled workers stagnated. The incomes of the top one percent, on the other hand, grew explosively, leading to ever increasing economic inequality. Signs of elite overproduction include …

Growing demand for educational credentials,

Tuition rates at elite colleges that rise much faster than inflation,

Exploding numbers of new MBA's and JD's,

Rampant polarization within the U.S. Congress with increasing legislative deadlock, and Declining health of government finances traced by the growth of federal debt.

“The key to society’s armageddon will be 'elite overproduction' in which the number of rich grow larger while the majority of society grapples with a stagnant standard of living and poor fiscal health. The upper echelons, too, will be ripped apart by bitter competition with a population of capable but angry 'elite-wannabes' who will be shut out of power. That fissure will undermine the spirit of co-operation and cause society to fragment further.”

– Peter Turchin

Historical research shows that this combination of trends is typical of historical societies that are in the pre-crisis phase. Most historians – feeling history is too complex and often driven by chance and individual moments – are suspicious of Cliodynamics.

Yet, Turchin points out how a crisis likely occurs every half-century. He calls this the “fathers-and-sons cycle,” Also, the data of cliodynamics defines, not one, but two trends or “endless repeating cycles.” The longer “secular cycle” runs around 200–300 years. Here's the scenario …

“Faced with injustice, a father takes violent action, leaving his son to deal with the miserable aftermath. Then, his grandson starts the whole thing over again. This 50-year cycle works alongside a much grander 'secular cycle' that takes centuries as population growth and demand for labor leads to massive inequality and eventual downfall of nations.”

All of this worry generated by Cliodynamics sounds dreadful. Still, Turchin believes awareness of our problems could help us stop them before they pitch us over the edge.

“You certainly can’t predict when a specific plane is going to crash, but engineers recover the black box. They study it carefully, they find out why the plane crashed, and that’s why so many fewer planes crash today than used to.”

– Herbert Gintis, American economist, behavioral scientist

What's in the “black box” of Trump's presidency? He thrives by inciting fear in people with a black-and-white view on the world. He agitates those with an us-versus-them mentality that does not reflect the reality and the complexity of everyday life. This emotionally driven oversimplification appeals to those who flock to Trump because it requires little thinking and tons of scapegoating. His white nationalist agenda repeatedly rejects scientific inquiry and understanding. Trumpers glorify their own blind allegiance.

“Our brain works on a 'what you see is all there is' -basis, meaning the less facts we know about something, the more we believe in the few things we know about it. That’s why so many people believe in the great promises Donald Trump delivers with so little concrete plans because it’s easy to understand, convenient, it’s the ever-old 'us-versus-them' illusion.”

– Quote of Daniel Kahneman, Israeli-American psychologist and economist, by Philipp Markolin, editor of Advances (in biological science)

The American public can alter the course of history at the ballot box. As Trump seeks reelection in 2020, people can elect him and bow to more division, or they can choose to effect a great change. Call it “a belief in Cliodynamics” or call it “an obligation to decency” that causes people to reject the policies of Trump – either view carefully examines the black box of an unstable autocrat.

There will undoubtedly be a period of political turmoil after the election, no matter the result. But, with the defeat of Trump, the ultimate human face of elite overproduction, will no longer be in charge. We can learn from history and understand that educating people about the past and the danger of those with “easy solutions” is necessary. We can see how populist … nationalist … dictators rule with propaganda and fear as they preach instability and ignore scientific solutions that threaten their power and influence.