Why Joe Biden Rolled to Victory on Super Tuesday

Super Tuesday results rocketed Vice President Joe Biden's campaign with a sudden resurrection unparalleled in modern political history. Biden came off the mat in South Carolina and used this momentum to sweep other Southern states – winning the primaries in Virginia, North Carolina, Alabama, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Texas – as well as those in Minnesota, Massachusetts, and Maine.

Based on preliminary exit poll data from 10 Super Tuesday states, Biden won at least 40 percent of the late-deciding vote in every state except for Sanders’s home state of Vermont.

How did this happen? Let's explore reasons for the phenomenon.

1. It's hard to remember a time when black voters have risen up to save a white political leader. But it appears they did it Tuesday.

South Carolina suddenly gave Biden the aura of a winner, and his Super Tuesday win came from overwhelming African American support.

In South Carolina, one endorsement in particular, that of Representative Jim Clyburn, mattered most. Clyburn is the power broker in the state; his “world famous” fish fry is a requirement for any candidate who hopes to be competitive there. According to cable-news exit polls, 47 percent of primary voters in the state said Clyburn’s endorsement was an important factor in their decision making.

Clyburn is a singular figure in politics. Few endorsements anywhere carry the weight that the House majority whip’s does in South Carolina. Clyburn was crucial to Biden's success the following Tuesday.

Exit polls from Super Tuesday show Biden won 63% of black Democratic voters casting their ballots in Virginia, 72% in Alabama and about 60% in Texas and North Carolina.

Black voters in northern states are different from those of the south. Southern blacks, more moderate than their northern counterparts, overwhelmingly supported Biden.

Biden won about seven out of 10 black votes in Alabama and Virginia, and nearly half of all black votes in Tennessee and North Carolina.

Biden’s strength among black communities also made the difference in narrowly winning Texas, where African Americans make up about one-fifth of the Democratic primary electorate and Biden won at least three times more of their votes than Sanders did.

(Kenya Evelyn. “What Super Tuesday revealed about black voters: they're not a monolith.” The Guardian. March 5, 2020.)

Biden's victory in a state like Alabama indicates there is a significant Democratic population looking to the 2020 race to heal America. Relationships built over decades – including those with President Obama –foster trust. He may not be as well-versed on issues of racial justice as other candidates, but black voters know Joe Biden and clearly, that is more than half the battle.

"We know Joe Biden. He came down here and worked with us before there ever was a Barack Obama."

– South Carolina voter

2. Hispanic voters in key states like Texas decided late to back Biden

Biden won 38 percent of Hispanic voters who decided late versus just 20 percent of earlier deciders. That kind of margin helped make a difference for Biden in Texas, where he won by just 3 points. Hispanic voters made up about one-third of the Texas electorate, and about a quarter of them decided their vote in the last few days. Of those, 34 percent backed Biden, compared to 23 percent of the earlier deciders.

3. White voters who decided late played a key role in Biden’s success.

Each state’s electorate was at least 80 percent white. Gary Langer, ABC’s polling guru, reported on election night that, in aggregate data across all states with exit polls, Biden won 52 percent of white voters who decided in the last few days compared to just 21 percent among those who picked a candidate earlier. That 31-point margin was the largest among any racial or ethnic group for which sources have data. Late deciders made a huge difference in Maine, Massachusetts and Minnesota.

4. Voters over the age of 45 voted overwhelmingly for Biden.

But, the real insights come from the fact that Biden dominated the 60-70% of Democratic primary voters who describe themselves as "somewhat liberal" or "moderate." Sanders won "very liberal" voters consistently – which makes sense for a self-described democratic socialist – but they only made up roughly a quarter of Democratic primary voters.

(John Avlon. “Bernie Sanders' ceiling and Joe Biden's 'Avengers.'”

WENY News. March 4, 2020.)

5. Bernie Sanders potentially hit a ceiling with new voters and the electoral map.

Bernie Sanders is getting fewer votes in many states than he did four years ago. For example, he won Oklahoma four years ago but lost decisively to Biden this year. Sanders won his home state of Vermont with 50.7% of the vote -- but that was down from 86% four years before.

Biden's record and message of building bridges hits the sweet spot between black voters and socially conservative, religious voters of all demographics who are using their votes not only to reject Trump policies, but also to reject radical social change.

“Do voters want a revolution – or a restoration?”

– Raul A. Reyes, CNN

It appears more want a restoration with Biden than a Sanders' revolution.

6. Democrats seemed to finally pay serious attention to what his nomination might mean – the number one issue for Democrats is defeating Donald Trump.

Establishment Democrats consolidated around Biden in a serious and meaningful way at just the right moment – contenders Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, both midwestern centrists – decided to bow out of the race before Super Tuesday and throw their support behind Biden. This group was dubbed "the moderate Avengers" on CNN's New Day in an exchange with Wajahat Ali.

It's a reminder of why a competent government let by experts rather than partisan crawlers matters to people's lives. Joe Biden's big Super Tuesday reflects the belief that Biden can beat Trump and Sanders could hurt Democrats in swing districts. Biden showed he had the grit and the resilience to reach deep inside himself and find his core strength – an important asset for any political leader.

Biden Onward and Upward?

What does the future hold for Joe Biden? Let's be certain – he will not only need all of these older voters, white voters, black voters, and Hispanic voters to support him, Biden must also convince more young people and women of all persuasions to join his quest for the presidency. Can Biden overcome the hurdles that tripped Clinton in 2016 and motivate a largely centrist liberal voting public to include those seeking deep social change? I believe he must; he can; and he will.

“With plenty of delegates still up for grabs, Sanders has time to regroup. Biden will be under pressure to raise money and build a bigger organization quickly, and he’ll have to continue navigating the verbal stumbles that first caused Democrats to doubt his viability in the general election … Michigan, which is the biggest prize on March 10, was the site of one of Sanders’s most surprising victories over Hillary Clinton in 2016, when he overcame a polling deficit of more than 20 points …

“An even bigger day on the primary calendar is March 17, when Ohio, Illinois, and Florida all weigh in. Florida is where Sanders is likely to struggle the most: Clinton walloped him there in 2016, and his democratic-socialist agenda is a poor fit for the state’s large population of older people and more conservative Hispanic voters.”

(Russell Berman and Adam Harris. “The Establishment Strikes Back.”

The Atlantic. March 4, 2020.)