COVID-19 -- Our Brains On Risk and Ambiguity

“In the risk scenario, there's a 50% chance of a good outcome. In the ambiguity one, the chance of a good outcome averages out to that same 50%, but ranges from 1% to 99% – there's just no way of telling. People vary dramatically as to how willing they are to take a risk, and some people thrive on it. In contrast, people consistently hate ambiguity.”

– Robert Sapolsky, professor of biology, neurology and neurosurgery
at Stanford University

Ambiguity and risk are different. Professor Sapolsky says, “Suppose you have to choose between two doors; pick the correct one and you win the lottery; pick the wrong one and you're beaten senseless by some thugs who dump you in an alley. That's about calculated risk. Suppose instead that you have to choose whether to let a complete stranger decide if you win the lottery or get beaten. That's ambiguity.”

When we consider risk, we activate parts of our brains related to calculating odds and executive features of decision-making, and if there's a good outcome at the end, things feel rewarding.

In contrast, when we wrestle with ambiguity, we activate brain regions central to anxiety and revulsion, and if there's a good outcome, we mostly feel less dread. While risk-taking is built on lack of control and of predictability, with ambiguity, it's those same factors – but on steroids.

Ambiguity and COVID-19

Sapolsky explains how ambiguity cause us so much trouble with COVID-19.

We are used to navigating “a world of medical risk” – vaccination risks, smoking risks, texting while driving. We rationalize these risks and conclude bad things won't happen to us. Sapolsky says, “While critical thinking may take a hit amid risk, our brains unravel and run amok in the empty moonscape of ambiguity. And that's what our pandemic world is now.” He posits …

“Can airborne coronavirus infect you, even if you are appropriately socially distanced? 'Still not clear.'

“When will there be a vaccine? 'Too early to say.'

“How long do you make antibodies after surviving Covid-19? 'Researchers are only in the preliminary stages of understanding that.'

“(Even more questions and doubt) Will a second wave of sickness this winter dwarf the first wave (as with the 1918 flu pandemic)? Why does Covid-19 ever kill a perfectly healthy young person?”

(Robert M. Sapolsky. “Why our brains are having so much trouble with Covid-19.”

CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/22/opinions/covid-19-mental-health-sapolsky/index.html

August 22, 2020.)

We know COVID-19 is real and it is out there. One extreme reaction – party unmasked among large crowds; another extreme reaction – pack up and run to the mountain top in fear coronavirus is in every little breeze. It is clear that ambiguity becomes an exercise in how much of a sense of agency we can draw on.

The answer to Sapolsky is clear:

“Take a deep, calming breath and recognize that amid the known and unknown unknowns, we still do know some facts about this virus and that there are things you can do to be safer. In contrast, decide that you are helpless, a hostage of random chance, and soon you're part of the equally huge current tsunami of depression.

“A time like this can make us gyrate between paralysis and impetuousness; blind us as to whose well-being matters; drive us to a frantic search for attribution that leads us to scapegoating. We must guard against how ambiguity can bring out the worst in us.”

(Robert M. Sapolsky. “Why our brains are having so much trouble with Covid-19.”

CNN. August 22, 2020.)

Ambiguous loss is tied to changes in daily routines, missing out on planned celebrations, and being physically separated from friends and family. The kind of grief we are experiencing is especially challenging because it is a reaction to the ambiguity of losing more intangible parts of our lives. Many of us are no longer able to cleanly divide work from home, or paid time from playtime.

Sarah B. Woods Ph.D., LMFT says …

“Ambiguous losse prompts an especially challenging kind of grief: It is confusing, and disorienting, and defies popular ideas about 'closure.' In other words, there is no clear 'end' to the current COVID-19 pandemic – and that’s part of what makes our emotional experience of this disease so taxing.”

(Sarah B. Woods. “COVID-19 and Ambiguous Loss.” Psychology Today. May 08, 2020.)

Even though this pandemic is devastatingly isolating, we must realize that the ambiguity and grief associated with the virus are universal. We are not alone. It will end, and by taking small, safe steps now, we can safely “unstick” ourselves from the immobilizing nature of ambiguity. And, maybe … just maybe … we have even discovered some new, positive things about ourselves and our families that allow us to build an even brighter future.