Democratic Women -- The Most Powerful Affiliation In 2020

“In every presidential election since 1984, women have made up a majority of all voters – usually between 52% and 53% of the total vote.”

– Chris Cillizza is a CNN Politics Reporter and Editor-at-Large

And, in Pew poll of partisan affiliation (June 2020), 56% of women now identify as Democrats or leaning Democratic while just 42% of men say the same. That 14-point gender gap "is as large as at any point in the past two decades," according to a Pew analysis of the data. Women are voicing their allegiance like never before.

(“In Changing U.S. Electorate, Race and Education Remain Stark Dividing Lines.” Pew Research Center. June 02, 2020.)

Michael Hais and Morley Winograd, co-authors of three books on the millennial generation, report in Brookings that among voters of each and every racial background and ethnicity, women have increased their identification with the Democratic Party.

The effect is most pronounced among America’s younger generations – Plurals (the best name for the generation after Millennials) and Millennials – but a rise in Democratic affiliation, albeit a smaller one, has also occurred among Gen X’ers, Boomers and even Silents, America’s oldest adult generation. The trend may be larger or smaller in each of these categories but always in the same direction.

Hais and Winograd address the change:

“The most profound change in American politics today and in the years to come will result from a massive movement of women into the Democratic Party … The overwhelming change in political party demographics since Trump’s victory in 2016 is the culmination of a long-term movement in party identification and voting behavior among women.

“With the election of Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton, what had been a modest gap of variable proportions has turned into a chasm so wide no Republican presidential candidate will be able to cross it for years to come.”

(Michael Hais and Morley Winograd. “The future is female: How the growing political power of women will remake American politics. Brookings. February 19, 2020.)

This increasing attachment to the Democratic Party reflects a deep-seated belief by women that most Republican men don’t see the world the way they do. No one could ignore the size and national impact the same shift had on the outcome of the midterm elections in November 2018. Democrats have elected the most diverse Congress (and the most women).

The Election of 2020

Women are the most dominant demographic in determining the outcome of November’s general election. With the Biden/Harris ticket, the Democratic Party has solidified its status as the women’s party in American politics for the foreseeable future.

In the primaries, Biden’s support was eight percentage points higher on average among women than men. Once it became clear that Joe Biden was the best bet to defeat Donald Trump, women flocked to his candidacy.

For example, in Michigan, among women, who comprised 54% of the Democratic primary electorate, Biden overwhelmed Bernie Sanders by a stunning margin of 23 points (58% to 35%). Women of every social class and ethnicity enabled Biden to beat Sanders in every county in Michigan from university towns to rural counties “up north” to the City of Detroit.

(Michael D. Hais and Morley Winograd. “Biden has women to thank for his primary victories.” Brookings. March 17, 2020.)

In a February 2020 Nationscape survey of likely primary voters, 63 percent of Democratic women said that their party affiliation was somewhat or very important to their identity, a statistically significant difference with men, only 58 percent of whom felt that way about being a Democrat.

Previous research found that partisanship is a more important personal factor for women than for men, with two-thirds of women over 45 saying that being a Democrat was an important part of their identity.

Women Unite to Defeat Trump

In 2019, even before Biden won the nomination, GOP strategist and CEO Sarah Chamberlain said that suburban women might be willing to vote for former Vice President Joe Biden over Trump in the 2020 election. Chamberlain, the head of the Women2Women Conversations Tour, cited focus groups the nonprofit has held with women across the country, including Democrats and Republicans. Chamberlain said …

“The women we're talking to — they like Joe Biden. If it’s Biden on the ticket, they may be willing to switch.”

(Tess Bonn. “GOP strategist: Suburban women may be willing to vote for Biden over Trump.” The Hill. July 23, 2019.)

Carly Fiorina, Republican candidate for president just four years ago, says that Trump “needs to go” …

“As citizens, our vote is more than a check on a box. You know, it’s a statement about where we want to go, and I think what we need now actually is real leadership that can unify the country,” she said. “I am encouraged that Joe Biden is a person of humility and empathy and character. I think he’s demonstrated that through his life. And I think we need humility and empathy everywhere in public life right now. And I think character counts.”

(Edward-Isaac Dovere. “She Wanted to Be a Republican President. She’s Voting for Biden.” The Atlantic. June 25, 2020.)

Issues – What Women Want

Women are looking for policies that will help them in their everyday lives. Yet beyond that, they want a candidate who speaks to their values. Women are disgusted with the tone of our politics, particularly with the post-2016 surge in sexism. Three-quarters of Democratic and black women are dissatisfied with how women are treated. In 2018 exit polls, roughly eight in 10 voters rated sexual harassment a serious problem.

In particular, they'll be watching closely for candidates' statements on issues that impact families and children. For example, compared to men, women are more worried about school shootings and believe laws regulating gun sales should be stricter.

On the matter of economics and jobs, women will be paying close attention to the discussion of equal pay laws. In 2018, women earned 85% of what men earned, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of median hourly earnings of both full- and part-time workers in the United States. Based on this estimate, it would take an extra 39 days of work for women to earn what men did in 2018.

(Nikki Graf, Anna Brown, and Eileen Patten. “The narrowing, but persistent, gender gap in pay.” Pew Research Center. March 22, 2019.)

And the gender pay gap is dramatically worse for some groups: Latinas are typically paid just 54 cents for every dollar paid to white, non-Hispanic men. Black women are typically paid just 62 cents for every dollar paid to white, non-Hispanic men

If the annual wage gap were eliminated, a typical woman working in the United States would have enough money to pay for approximately:

“More than a full additional year of tuition and fees for a four-year public university, or the full cost of tuition and fees for a two-year college;

“More than 13 additional months of child care; or

“More than seven additional months of premiums for employer-based health insurance.”

(“Quantifying America’s Gender Wage Gap by Race/Ethnicity National.” Partnership for Women and Families. March 2020.)

Just Defeat Trump

For a lot of women, defeating Trump is survival in a very clear way. They're losing their jobs; they don't have health care; and they're worried about their kids. Trump's abrasive rhetoric and some of his hardline stances such as family separation at the border and the images of children in cages marked a turning point for many women.

Many female voters are paying closer attention to healthcare access and the economic recovery of our country. Data shows that communities of color are being the most heavily impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Of course, the COVID pandemic has also shifted voters’ priorities and outlook. “It’s exposed many deficits in our social safety net and, frankly, how we value women in society,” says Heather Colburn, CEO of Run the World.

(Caitlin Flynn. “How Women Really Feel About Voting for Joe Biden.” InStyle. August 17, 2020.)

Women: VOTE! VOTE! VOTE!

Voting is more than just a civic duty; it is a right. Our political system is based upon the idea of equal representation, but it has systematically withheld the right to vote for many. In fact, the 19^th Amendment ratified August 18, 1920, finally gave women the right to vote: “The right of citizens of the United States to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of sex.”

The election of 2020 is the most important vote in modern times. This comment may seem like a tired cliché often parroted by politicians; however, this time the words ring clearly. As David Corn, Mother Jones' Washington bureau chief, reminds us …

“Donald Trump has waged a war on norms of governance, the rule of law, productive discourse, and the media, as he has set a record for uttering false statements, overseen a regime riddled with corruption, given comfort to racists, misogynists, and wacko conspiracy theorists, and displayed a disturbing affinity for autocracy.”

(David Corn. “The Most Important Election of Our Lives.” Mother Jones. December 2018.)

The votes of American women will likely decide the outcome of the 2020 election. As the coronavirus pandemic has exposed the need for sweeping economic and social reform, women must step up and cast ballots to defeat the Trump regime and secure these much-needed changes.

The outcome of this election will impact every facet of American life. It must be a genuine exercise in preserving democracy – strong, intelligent, progressive women are leading the fight and, in doing so, breaking new ground in American politics.