"He (Biden) portrays himself, and accurately I think, as kind of a blue-collar guy. He comes from a blue-collar background. He's always enjoyed strong union support, and he's getting that in 2020. He has the right profile to appeal to voters in many parts of the state, certainly in northeastern Ohio."
"There are all kinds of reasons why people who supported Trump in 2016 should move away from him in 2020. Part of that is that Trump is very good at sounding the same messages over and over again, even if they aren't necessarily valid, including on the economy. That presents a real opening for Biden.”
– Paul Beck, Ohio State professor emeritus of political science at Ohio State University and an expert on the state's political trends.
It's September 29, 2020, the day of the first presidential debate in Cleveland. Ohio is a longtime presidential battleground state that has again been looking competitive after trending toward Republicans in recent years.
Since 1896, Ohioans have sided with the winning White House candidate in all but two elections. Some Democrats feared the state was slipping away from them after Trump easily won there in 2016 and Republicans prevailed in most statewide races in the 2018 midterms.
Although Trump’s allies say he is well positioned to again capture the state, Democrats argue that suburban disillusionment with the president and the economic downturn brought on by the pandemic are giving Joe Biden an opportunity.
A Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday (September 24) showed a statistical tie among likely Ohio voters, while a Fox News poll released the same day showed Mr. Biden leading Mr. Trump among likely voters, 50% to 45%.
(“September 24, 2020 - 2020 Race: Trump Has Slight Edge In Texas, A Tight Race In Ohio, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Texas Senate Race: Cornyn Leads Hegar.” Quinnipiac University. September 24, 2020.)
The Wall Street Journal reports that Biden is leading in national polls and in several other battleground states. The signs of competition for Ohio’s 18 electoral votes – the seventh-largest in the nation—come as polls show Trump is lagging behind Biden in other Great Lakes states he won in 2016 and could complicate his path to the 270 electoral votes needed to win.
(John McCormick and Catherine Lucey. “Trump, Biden to Debate in Ohio as State Looks More Competitive.” Wall Street Journal. September 28, 2020.)
Weakness in Ohio could signal broader problems across the Midwestern states that sent Trump to the White House four years ago.
“The Trump campaign knows it can’t win without Ohio,” said Scott Jennings, who was Republican Mitt Romney’s Ohio state director for the 2012 presidential campaign. “They can’t take it for granted because it’s such a big chunk of what they need to do.”
The gender gap is clear in Ohio – Trump ahead among men and Biden winning among women.
Biden is ahead in the poll among the state’s suburban voters, 54% to 41%, while Mr. Trump dominates, 63% to 32%, among rural voters.
For Biden to win the state, Democrats say he needs to boost turnout among Black and urban voters in the “three Cs” – Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinnati – while also performing better than 2016 nominee Hillary Clinton did in the state’s rural areas.
(John McCormick and Catherine Lucey. “Trump, Biden to Debate in Ohio as State Looks More Competitive.” Wall Street Journal. September 28, 2020.)
Beautiful Ohio
“Drifting with the current down a moonlit stream
While above the Heavens in their glory gleam
And the stars on high
Twinkle in the sky
Seeming in a paradise of love divine
Dreaming of a pair of eyes that looked in mine
Beautiful Ohio, in dreams again I see
Visions of what used to be.”
An allusion to “visions in dreams” from the state song may accurately portray a blue wave in the 2020 election. Joe Biden can deliver a Buckeye victory – a victory that could propel him to the White House.
Biden’s “Scranton strategy” focused on his roots and the manufacturing economy is perfect for Ohio, which struggled through Trump’s trade war, saw its worst year for job growth last year since the Great Recession. Biden's appeal comes from his stands on the coronavirus, the economy, and health care.
Also, it sounds simplistic, but the 76-year-old Biden is viewed as a normal fellow. That regular-guy thing goes a long way in Ohio, where the population is older and whiter than the rest of America – and growing increasingly more so.
"If Biden were to win Ohio, Trump’s path in the Midwest – and to a second term – would be blocked.”
– Kyke Kondik, author of The Bellwether: Why Ohio Picks the President
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