“People are pouring across our borders, which is horrible. We have to build a wall... Look, I build some of the greatest buildings in the world. Building a wall for me is easy. And it would be a wall. It would be a real wall. Not a wall that people walk over.”
--Donald Trump
Donald Trump says he will make the Mexican government pay for the construction of a massive wall along the Mexican border. The wall has been a key centerpiece of Trump’s aggressive border security and immigration plan as he seeks the Republican nomination for president.
In order to make Mexico pay, Trump has outlined potential consequences for the country if it refuses to comply, including raising fees on temporary visas and at ports of entry.
In the meantime, Felipe Calderon, the former president of Mexico (2006 to 2012), called Trump’s pledge to build a , calling “stupid” and “useless” and referred to the reality TV billionaire as “not a very well-informed man.” When asked about the wall on CNBC, Calderon replied: “Mexican people, we are not going to pay any single cent for such a stupid wall."
Calderon contends the US would stand to lose if a wall were built: “If this guy pretends that closing the borders to anywhere either for trade or for people is going to provide prosperity to the US, he is completely crazy.”
The ex-president also cites recent data from Pew Research Center, which shows the number of Mexican immigrants living the US illegally has fallen over the years. There were 5.6 million unauthorized immigrants from Mexico living in the US in 2014, which is down about 1 million from the 2007 peak.
(Michelle Coffey. "Mexico won't pay for Trump's 'stupid' wall, ex-president says."
Marketwatch. February 09, 2016.)
Still, Trump says he will build the "artistically beautiful" barrier that will be "taller than any ladder and one foot taller than the Great Wall of China." He speculates: "The wall is probably $8 billion, which is a tiny fraction of the money that we lose with Mexico. We lose a tremendous amount of trade deficits. We have a trade deficit with Mexico that is astronomical, much bigger than that. We will get -- and I say it also is also part of my plan -- Mexico is going to pay for the wall."
How would a President Trump ever get such a bill about a wall through both the Senate and House, given the expenses and politics involved? An examination of the feasibility is necessary.
The Message and Expense of Building a Wall
The wall itself, purely as a visual, “sends a negative message to one of our biggest trade partners, but most [politicians] won’t go through with it because of the massive expense,” said Matt Barreto, professor of political science and Chicana/o studies at UCLA.
It is difficult to pinpoint the cost to build such a wall. News reports estimating the price of a wall have varied widely. The
Wall Street Journal estimates that the cost to build it could run into the tens of billions of dollars. The border with Mexico is about 1,900 miles.
Let's examine what we do know. In 2006, federal law required the construction of an approximately 700-mile fence. The border fencing and associated costs added up to about $6 billion as of 2012.
"It’s a lot more expensive than we expected when we started, and it was much more difficult," said Ronald Vitiello, deputy chief of the U.S. Border Patrol for U.S. Customs and Border Protection, before a Senate committee.
For the fence already built, the costs fluctuated depending upon the terrain. A Congressional Research Service report noted in 2009 that the challenges include "costs versus benefits, location, design, environmental impact, potential diplomatic ramifications, and the costs of acquiring the land needed for construction."
According to Taxpayers for Common Sense, the average mile of border wall costs taxpayers $4.5 million, an average mile of vehicle barrier $1.6 million. In some places the cost of construction has exceeded $12 million per mile.
("Fence Costs Out of Bounds." Taxpayers for Common Sense. April 27, 2009.)
It is apparent the cost for Donald Trump's proposed wall will run extremely high. Media reports to complete such a wall rang from $5.1 billion to $25 billion — plus additional costs to maintain it.
(Amy Sherman. "Donald Trump says of course Mexico can pay for wall -- because of the trade deficit. PolitiFact. Tampa Bay Times. January 26, 2016.)
Maintenance
Any structure needs upkeep and maintenance. Projections on such matters are hard to find. But, according to the U.S. Army Corps, maintenance of the fence mandated in 2006 in some areas could cost $5 million to $8 million per mile per year. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the fence maintenance costs will exceed initial construction costs within seven years, not including costs associated with vandalism.
In a 2007 study the non-partisan Congressional Research Office pegged the bill to construct and maintain (for 25 years) a 700 mile fence to be $49 billion.
What other costs inhibit construction of a wall?
Gary Jacobs, a successful Laredo Texas businessman Chairman and CEO of Laredo National Bank from 1976 to 2005, says, "We haven’t tallied the costs for all the new ancillary surveillance paraphernalia; unmanned aerial drones, helicopters, radars, night vision goggles, high tech cameras, airboats, blimps, other high speed power boats, who knows what else…..and then factor all the costs of maintenance on this high tech equipment…..over time it’s well into the billions."
Democratic Congressman Henry Cuellar of Texas's 28th District that encompasses a significant swath of the Texas-Mexico border agrees: "Gary, your points are well taken. When I was on Homeland Security Committee I put forth some simple questions. How much does one mile of fence cost versus one mile of technology (high frequency sensors, etc.) A mile of technology costs $1 million while the fence is many many multiples of that. I then wanted to know if statistics are available that could tell whether technology or fences were more effective at securing our borders. The answer was it was hard to have an idea. A fence, even the double fence contemplated gives law enforcement maybe a minute or less to react and apprehend."
(Richard Finger. "The Border Fence: Horrible Deal At Cost Up To $40,000
Per Illegal Immigrant Apprehended. Forbes. July 18, 2013.)
Environmental Damage
The costs of mitigating the environmental damage caused by the wall and related border enforcement activities have not been factored in either. The $50 million Congress added to DHS’ 2009 budget for “regulatory and environmental requirements” would be a drop in the bucket for Trump's wall.
A wall right up against the Rio Grande, the river that provides water for the roughly 7 plus million people that live on either side of the border from El Paso to Brownsville, would likely impede water flow and effectively create what amounts to water being dammed up.
Gary Jacobs claims: "Not only would the water back up, all the debris like rotten wood and tree branches will leave areas looking like hundreds of beaver dams. If our government is planning on leaving spaces where these waterways exist to let water flow naturally, then people could get through too…..so if that’s true, what’s the point of a fence?"
Jacobs also says, "With all the resulting mini dam’s that will form, normal drainage in the main source (the Rio Grande) would change…the watershed would be altered….as a lot of water gets stuck on the U.S. side (of the border). The U.S. and Mexico share rights to the river’s water per the 1944 US-Mexico Water Treaty. It governs both the Rio Grande and the Colorado (river) and delineates riparian rights and specific acre feet water allocations. Under our “fence plan” the Mexican side of the border would certainly be shortchanged... a huge potential problem."
(Richard Finger. "The Border Fence: Horrible Deal At Cost Up To $40,000
Per Illegal Immigrant Apprehended. Forbes. July 18, 2013.)
Simply Stated, "Would a Wall 'Work' To Stop Illegal Immigration?"
From his own experience, Jacobs says:
"The ingenuity of smugglers is always steps ahead of law enforcement. Boatloads of immigrants will be bussed on boats into the Gulf of Mexico and dropped off on Padre Island. Or watch the migration flow north to the Canadian border where there are no fences and security is extremely lax compared to Texas….and there is 3,000 miles of it. Some of the 9/11 terrorists came through Canada, if you recall."
"It doesn’t matter how many fences you build, how high, how thick, if people want to get in they will find a way. Second, and I can only speak to the area from El Paso to Brownsville….that is impossible to totally seal off. The physical challenges there are insurmountable. Look on a border map and explain to me how you would propose to interdict on Lake Amistad, or Falcon Lake……or Big Bend National Park which people don’t realize is over 1,250 square miles, bigger than Rhode Island and has mountains that have several thousand feet of vertical height."
Congressman Cuellar agrees with Jacobs:
"Simply stated, a fence is a 14th century solution to a 21st century problem. Gary is right, if the fence is an impediment undocumented aliens will find another way. According to Homeland Security, 40 percent of all undocumented aliens came here legally on some type of work or student visa. They just never went back home. Of the other 60 percent many were brought in by smuggling operations. It is troubling that some politicians pontificate on sealing a border when they live 1,200 miles away and have not spent an adequate amount of time to visit and understand the terrain or the local dynamics."
(Richard Finger. "The Border Fence: Horrible Deal At Cost Up To $40,000
Per Illegal Immigrant Apprehended. Forbes. July 18, 2013.)
Conclusions
From an engineering standpoint, it’s possible to build Trump's wall.
But, the cost would be enormous.
Several experts told PolitiFact there is no connection between the size of the trade deficit and finding money to build the wall. Trump’s overall message here is misleading because he suggests that the size of the trade deficit is proof that Mexico could pay for the wall.
In reality, the trade deficit has nothing to do with whether the Mexican government could afford to write the United States a check to build the wall. Mark Perry, a University of Michigan professor and scholar at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, said the trade deficit is based mostly on trading and investment by private individuals and companies -- not by the government itself.
"Trump’s connection of the trade deficit with a Mexican border fence is just nonsense," said Alex Nowrasteh, an immigration expert at the libertarian Cato Institute. "Just because the Mexican economy has a trade surplus relative to the United States doesn’t mean the Mexican government has the resources to build a border wall. It would be like me threatening my neighbor to build a new fence or else I’ll stop shopping at Walmart."
Nowrasteh says, "It’s not like there is $54 billion sitting around somewhere in Mexico, like a magic pile of dollars, that could be used to build a wall."
The Mexican government does not have adequate funds to pay for health, education or roads -- much less build a wall, said Gary Hufbauer of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a think tank that analyzes globalization. "The trade surplus does not represent money in some idle bank account controlled by the Mexican government."
(Amy Sherman. "Donald Trump says of course Mexico can pay for wall -- because of the trade deficit. PolitiFact. Tampa Bay Times. January 26, 2016.)
Reporter Ruben Navarrette, Jr. reports: "As one especially wise border patrol agent once told me, 'There is no barrier known to man that will stop someone who has traveled hundreds of miles to feed his family. He will go over, under, or around anything you put up.'”
Navarrette says border patrol agents he has talked with know walls don't do wonders. The agents don't mind them, and they do tend to slow down some would-be border crossers and give border patrol agents more time to get to the scene. But, the agents just wish Congress didn’t waste so much time and political capital on debating the fence as if it were a cure-all for illegal immigration.
The consensus from agents Navarrette interviewed is that the only way to put a dent in illegal immigration is to penalize employers. No jobs, no illegal immigrants. The trouble is, in both political parties, there is no appetite for getting tough with a group of people who can utter six little words that strike fear into the hearts of politicians everywhere: “I’m stopping payment on the check.”
(Ruben Navarrette, Jr. "Just Build Trump's Stupid Wall Already."
The Daily Beast. August 25, 2015.)
Walls not only keep people out, but they also pen people in. Speculation by Trump and his supporters on what the almighty wall would do to address the problem of illegal immigration -- those people already here and those preparing to cross the border -- is just that: conjecture without firm evidence.
But, I certainly don't expect facts, costs, logic, research, or past experience to affect the Trump supporters' view that a humongous wall will stop illegal immigration. He is right about one thing: "building a wall for him is easy." Hell, Trump seems to build daily enormous walls of social separation with his thoughtless, venomous comments about anything he doesn't truly understand. And, his supporters go along with his views.
The physical barrier Donald Trump proposes between the United States and Mexico symbolizes our ineffectiveness to secure our democracy with better, more efficient measures of intelligent design that encourage legal immigration and stop illegal immigration.
But, if you still want the wall, here is a solution put forth by Ruben Navarrette, Jr.:
"President Trump should call the Golden State Fence Company in Riverside, California. Launched in 1984, the company—which has contracted with the U.S. government to build fences on the U.S.-Mexico border—at one point had as many as 750 employees and generated annual revenue of about $150 million.
"Oh, wait. There is no more Golden State Fence Company. The outfit is now called Fenceworks, Inc. That’s because the Golden State Fence Company was busted in 1999, 2004, and 2005 for hiring illegal immigrants—to build the fencing that was meant to keep out illegal immigrants.
"Immigration agents estimate that as much as 50 percent of the company’s workforce were in the country illegally. Owner Melvin Kay took a plea bargain where he paid $5 million and spent six months under house arrest, during which time he continued to bid on government contracts.
"When punishing those who employ illegal immigrants, that’s how we roll. Americans talk loudly but carry a small stick. And the problem continues.
"So, go ahead. Build your dang wall. Feel better. And nothing will change."
(Ruben Navarrette, Jr. "Just Build Trump's Stupid Wall Already."
The Daily Beast. August 25, 2015.)
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