Wednesday, September 15, 2021

The Unvaccinated -- Filling Hospitals and Morgues During the Delta Surge

 

    "More than 9 in 10 COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths occurred among people who are unvaccinated or not yet fully vaccinated. The share of COVID-19 cases among those not fully vaccinated ranged from 94.1% in Arizona to 99.85% in Connecticut.”

CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky (Research – Kaiser Family Foundation

Cases of COVID-19 are again climbing fueled by the delta variant. The numbers of cases across Ohio, Kentucky and Indiana are causing alarm.

Ohio

Dr. Bruce Vanderhoff, the new director for the Ohio Department of Health, said in a press conference on September 9, “While we’re not at an all-time high of cases reported, these numbers are certainly troubling."

"In early July, we were seeing daily case rates of 200 and 300," Dr. Vanderhoff continued. "Today, we’re seeing 20 times that. We also continue to see rising numbers of Ohioans tested for COVID-19 and increasing positivity rates, now hovering at a seven-day average of 13.3 percent.”

He also provided the following data to give some context behind the statewide spike in new COVID-19 infections:

  • Statewide hospitals: One in seven patients in the hospital has COVID-19. One in four in the ICU is battling COVID-19. That includes more than 3,000 total patients with COVID-19, including more than 800 in the ICU.

  • Rural hospitals: One in three patients has COVID. Half of all patients in the ICU have COVID-19.

  • Compared to July: The number of patients admitted with COVID-19 was in the 200s with only 60-70 people in the ICU.

Just one week ago, I was telling you I was troubled by the more than 2,500 patients in the hospital – and that number has now grown by more than 22 percent in just the last week," Dr. Vanderhoff said. "This hospital surge is largely being driven by unvaccinated Ohioans amidst our wave of cases from the dangerous, highly contagious delta variant.”

(Ryan Haidet 'These numbers are certainly troubling': Ohio health officials address COVID surge as positivity rate tops 13 percent.” WKYC – NBC. Cleveland. September 9, 2021.)

In 66 of Ohio’s 88 counties, fewer than 1 in 2 residents have received at least one dose of vaccination against COVID-19, which has killed more than 661,000 Americans since the pandemic began.

The low vaccination coverage, found via an analysis of state data from Sunday, indicates vast swaths of the state remain vulnerable to a surging, hyper-transmissible variant of the virus that causes the disease.

The vaccines are free to recipients and have been widely available to the public since late March, suggesting much of the population remains unvaccinated by choice.

With more than 3,400 Ohioans currently hospitalized for what is now a vaccine-preventable disease, there’s little evidence of a common cause in the body public to stave off the virus.

About 53% of Ohio students, many of them too young to legally receive a vaccine, attend a school with a mask mandate, according to Tierney. Conservatives who dominate the General Assembly called for lawsuits to stop Biden’s mandate. Some are pushing legislation to broadly weaken Ohio’s vaccination laws.

(Jake Zuckerman. “Only Delaware County surpasses national vaccine uptake average.” Ohio Capital Journal. September 14, 2021.)

Kentucky

Kentucky is setting records. Gov. Andy Beshear said in a statement Sept. 7 that the state reported a record number of new cases from Aug. 30 to September 5, with 30,680 cases.

The COVID surge has led to so many patients at St. Claire Regional Medical Center in Morehead that the workers are unsure how they'll handle the growing numbers when a medical team sent by the federal government leaves Friday.

The Morehead hospital, about 65 miles east of Lexington, is one of the hardest-hit due to the influx of Covid-19 patients. It's the largest health care facility serving 11 counties in rural northeastern Kentucky and -- as of last week -- was at 130% above capacity, according to St. Claire Health Care CEO Donald Lloyd.

"The only reason we are holding this lifeboat together is I have a federal disaster medical assistance team here, 14 people who have just been heroes to us. And, unfortunately, their deployment is over on Friday," Dr. William Melah, the chief medical officer for St. Claire Health Care, told CNN's Kate Bolduan on Monday. "I'm going to lose 14 health care professionals, and I literally have no idea what we're going to do on Friday."

Beshear said during a Covid-19 briefing on September 13 that hospitals in Kentucky are "struggling more today than at any other point during the pandemic." Because of this, Beshear said about 400 National Guard troops will be deployed across 25 hospitals in the state.

"This is, I think, the largest deployment for a health care crisis in our commonwealth's history," Beshear said. "Every hospital that they go to not only talk about how it's a morale boost, but it truly helps in the operation and it allows them to provide more care to more patients."

An "army of nursing students" is also being sent all over the state, the governor said.

(Amir Vera and Lauren Clabby Moore. “Overwhelmed Kentucky hospitals fear the worst as federal Covid-19 assistance is scheduled to leave Friday.” CNN. September 13, 2021.)

West Virginia

While West Virginia was an early national leader in vaccinations, the pace of shots has since dropped off. The state’s percentage of fully vaccinated residents – 39.9% – is tied for last in the country, CDC data shows. The Mountain State is last in the country in people vaccinated, and leading the nation in spreading the virus.

Case counts in West Virginia hit record levels, according to Hopkins data, reaching a daily average of nearly 1,800 per day. Dr. Clay Marsh, the state’s Covid czar, said the most-recent surge has been more extreme and has happened more quickly than any of the prior waves.

As of September 13, West Virginia had 27,607 active COVID-19 cases.

For perspective, that's nearly the population of Parkersburg, which is 28,612 after the 2020 census.

"From a healthcare perspective and seeing what my team has been through, and what the healthcare community has been through, it is frustrating, because we're exhausted," Dr. Sherri Young with the Kanawha-Charleston Health Department said.

(Anthony Conn. “West Virginia last in country in vaccinations, leading nation in spreading COVID-19.” WCHS TV Charleston. September 13, 2021.)

 

The Unvaccinated

With only about half of the U.S. population fully vaccinated against the novel coronavirus, hospitals across the country are straining to respond to a deadly fourth surge of infections driven by the delta variant. Unless immunizations pick up, it's likely regions with fewer vaccinated residents will bear the brunt of the pandemic's coming days.

During the current delta-driven Covid-19 wave, Americans are being transported hundreds of miles from their homes because no nearby hospital has room for them. Some of them have even died waiting for medical attention.

In other words, US hospitals are being forced – in the middle of a public health emergency – to ration health care for their patients.

(Dylan Scott. “Americans are dying because no hospital will take them.” Vox. September 14, 2021.)

Who is driving the surge and filling the hospitals? The unvaccinated. The CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said last week “well over 90% of people who are in the hospital are unvaccinated.”

Those who were unvaccinated were about four-and-a-half times more likely to get COVID-19, are 10 times more likely to be hospitalized, and 11 times more likely to die,” she added.

Hospitals across the nation contacted by ABC News have echoed Walensky’s statement.

(Arielle Mitropoulos, Sony Salzman, and Brian Hartman. “More than 90% of COVID-19 hospitalizations are among unvaccinated.” ABC News. September 14, 2021)

Tracking hospitalizations by vaccination status is tough because only about half the states report that information and many share it in different ways.

However, an analysis of that data found that breakthrough cases in general are uncommon among the fully vaccinated and “the vast majority of reported COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths in the U.S. are among those who are unvaccinated or not fully vaccinated,” according to a study released last month by The Kaiser Family Foundation, a nonprofit focused on national health issues.

Overall, the data found that breakthrough events are extremely rare among those who are fully vaccinated, and that the vast majority of reported COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in U.S. are among those who are unvaccinated or not fully vaccinated. Some key highlights include:

  • The rate of breakthrough cases reported among those fully vaccinated is well below 1% in all reporting states, with Connecticut the lowest (0.01%) and Alaska the highest (0.29%). Hospitalization rates among those fully vaccinated ranged from effectively zero (0.00%) in California, Delaware, D.C., Indiana, New Jersey, New Mexico, Vermont, and Virginia to 0.06% in Arkansas. Death rates were even lower at 0.00% for all but two states, Arkansas and Michigan, where they were 0.01%.

  • More than 9 in 10 COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths occurred among people who are unvaccinated or not yet fully vaccinated. The share of COVID-19 cases among those not fully vaccinated ranged from 94.1% in Arizona to 99.85% in Connecticut.

(Jennifer Kates, Lindsey Dawson, Emma Anderson, Anna Rouw, Josh Michaud, and Natalie Singer. “COVID-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Cases: Data from the States.” Kaiser Family Foundation. July 30, 2021.)

The bottom line is this: We have the scientific tools we need to turn the corner on this pandemic,” CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said at a White House coronavirus briefing Friday. “Vaccination works and will protect us from the severe complications of COVID-19.”

The virus has killed more than 650,000 people in the United States, with about 1,500 average daily deaths September 3 through September 10 – a toll not seen since early March, according to data analyzed by The Washington Post.

I want to repeat – the unvaccinated are 11 times more likely to die. If you haven't been vaccinated, you are risking serious health complications, even death. The three vaccines show continued robust protection for all adults – greater than 82 percent – against hospitalization, emergency room and urgent-care trips.

Consider these facts:

Fact: 99.5% of the people who died from Covid-19 over the past six months were unvaccinated. – CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky, July 1 White House Briefing

Fact: As of August 9, 2021, the CDC said there had been 8,054 vaccinated people who were hospitalized or died who had also tested positive for coronavirus – out of more than 166 million fully vaccinated Americans. That’s roughly .005 percent. – Politifact, Fact Checking Joe Biden’s Figure on Unvaccinated COVID-19 Deaths

Fact: Studies have shown that a person infected with the Delta variant of COVID has roughly 1,000 times more copies of the virus in their respiratory tracts than a person infected with the original strain. – CDC, Delta Variant: What We Know About the Science

Yet ...

The percentage of populations that have received at least one dose of the vaccine in the Tri-State is as follows: Kentucky 58%, Ohio 53%, and West Virginia 48%. That means 53% of the residents are totally unvaccinated.

To close, let me give one last warning to the unvaccinated. If you do not take the vaccine and become infected with COVID-19, you might not get seriously ill, but you may still carry it to some who could – your family, your friends, or other people at risk of severe illness such as those with heart or lung conditions, weakened immune systems, obesity, or diabetes.

That’s been the message all along. If you refuse the vaccine, you know this, and evidently, you are willing to take the responsibility for endangering others because nothing – not even proven strategies like masking and social distancing – can effectively prevent transmission and health complications like the vaccine.

I know most who still refuse to be vaccinated are not even practicing masking and distancing now. I pray you have a change of heart and join the fight against the pandemic by getting your shot. Despite your objections to the vaccine, you may want to rethink your view that the vaccine is riskier than the virus – much of that view depends upon your personal concepts of “the severity” and “the risk” and the risk “to whom.” I hope I have fully defined those abstractions based upon facts, research, and science. The choice is yours … so are the outcomes.

Any suffering or death from Covid-19 tragic,” Walensky said. “With vaccines available across the country, the suffering and loss we are now seeing is entirely avoidable.”

Dr. Rochelle Walensky, CDC Director

 


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