God bless our veterans. We just commemorated Veterans Day 2021, and I read a very interesting fact reported in the November 11 Portsmouth Daily Times concerning the ceremony at Tracy Park in Portsmouth.
The Times reported the following:
“Marine and Firefighter for Portsmouth, James Howard, gave the ceremonies address.
“'This morning, I read something about the importance of keeping faith in each other as veterans,' said Howard. 'Mainly, we need to keep faith in the oath we swore we would do.'
“Howard said only 1% of the nation are veterans.
“'That means only 1% in our country right now swore an oath to defend it against every opposition,' said Howard. 'That means if our voices aren’t going to be raised in defense of every person in America, then we shouldn’t be looking in any other direction or for anyone else’s voices to speak out because if those who swore to defend our country won’t speak out to save it, then no one else will.'”
(Darian Gillette.“Veterans honored at Tracy Park ceremony.” Portsmouth Daily Times. November 11, 2021.)
I was shocked to read that “only 1% of the nation are veterans.” That figure seemed extremely low to me, so I decided to do an online investigation. My intention for the research was solely to check the facts, not to dispute the claim. Would a fact check reveal a different statistic?
Here is what I found …
A relatively new report released by the U.S. Census Bureau in June 2020 shows, indeed, that the overall population of veterans is declining. According to the report, the number of veterans in the United States declined by about a third, from 26.4 million to 18.0 million between 2000 and 2018.
The report, Those Who Served: America’s Veterans From World War II to the War on Terror, looks at the characteristics of the “18.0 million or about 7% of the adult population who were veterans of the U.S. Armed Forces in 2018.”
This Census report uses data from the 2018 American Community Survey (ACS). The ACS is a nationwide survey designed to provide timely and reliable data every year on the demographic, social, economic and housing characteristics of the nation, states, counties and other localities.
Ranging from 18 to over 100 years old, they served in conflicts as diverse as the Korean War and the Global War on Terrorism. Of noted interest is that the number of female veterans is on the rise – about 1.7 million, or 9% of veterans, were women in 2018, and it is projected that number will jump to 17% by 2040 – and Post 9-11 veterans have the highest rate of service-connected disability compared to any other group of veterans.
(Jonathan Vespa. “Those Who Served: America's Veterans From World War II to the War on Terror.” United States Census Bureau.Report.” Number ACS-43. June 02, 2020.)
Pew Research (April 2021) said: “There are around 19 million U.S. veterans as of this year, according to data from the Department of Veterans Affairs, representing less than 10% of the total U.S. adult population.”
The research revealed these key findings:
Gulf War-era veterans now account for the largest share of all U.S. veterans, having surpassed Vietnam-era veterans in 2016, according to the VA’s 2018 population model estimates.
VA estimates for 2021 indicate there are 5.9 million American veterans who served during the Vietnam era and 7.8 million who served in the Gulf War era, which spans from August 1990 through the present. There are also around 240,000 World War II veterans and about 933,000 who served during the Korean conflict, the VA estimates. Some veterans served through multiple eras but are counted only in their earliest era. Roughly three-quarters (78%) of veterans in 2021 served during wartime, and 22% served during peacetime. (Veterans with wartime and peacetime service are only counted in wartime.)
The share of the U.S. population with military experience is declining.
In 2018, about 7% of U.S. adults were veterans, down from 18% in 1980, according to the Census Bureau. This drop coincides with decreases in active-duty personnel. Over the past half-century, the number of people on active duty has dropped significantly, from 3.5 million in 1968, during the military draft era, to about 1.4 million (or less than 1% of all U.S. adults) in today’s all-volunteer force. The draft ended in 1973.
VA projections suggest the number of living veterans will continue to decline over the next 25 years.
By 2046, the department estimates there will be around 12.5 million veterans, a decrease of about 35% from current numbers. By that time, Gulf War-era veterans are projected to make up a majority of those who served, and most veterans who served in the Vietnam era or earlier will have died.
The demographic profile of veterans is expected to change in the next quarter century.
Currently, about nine-in-ten veterans (89%) are men, while about one-in-ten (11%) are women, according to the VA’s 2021 population model estimates. By 2046, the share of female veterans is expected to increase to about 18%. The number of female veterans is also projected to increase slightly, from around 2 million in 2021 to approximately 2.2 million in 2046. The number of male veterans, on the other hand, is projected to drop from about 17 million in 2021 to around 10.3 million in 2046.
As with trends in the U.S. population overall, the veteran population is expected to become more racially and ethnically diverse. Between 2021 and 2046, the share of veterans who are non-Hispanic White is expected to drop from 74% to 62%. The share of veterans who are Hispanic is expected to double from 8% to 16%, while the share who are Black is expected to increase slightly from 13% to 15%.
Projections also indicate that the veteran population will become slightly younger, with 33% of veterans being younger than 50 in 2046 compared with 27% in 2021, even as the overall U.S. population continues to age. The share of veterans ages 50 to 69 is expected to shrink from 36% to 33%, while the share of those 70 and older is predicted to be around a third of the total (34%) by 2046, slightly lower than the current share (37%).
Fewer members of Congress have prior military experience than in the past.
As the share of Americans who are veterans has declined, so has the share of legislators who have previously served in the military. In the current Congress, 17% of lawmakers in both houses had prior military service, down drastically from just a few decades ago.
The share of senators who are veterans reached a post-Korean War peak of 81% in 1975, while the share among House members peaked in 1967 at 75%. However, in recent elections, both Democrats and Republicans have made special efforts to recruit veterans for congressional contests, and the newly elected freshman class includes 15 such lawmakers.
The Department of Veterans Affairs receives a relatively low favorability rating compared with other government agencies.
The VA received the third-lowest rating among 10 agencies and departments in a Pew Research Center survey last spring. Roughly two-thirds of U.S. adults (65%) had a favorable view of the VA, and 22% expressed an unfavorable view. As with many of the agencies and departments in the survey, there were partisan differences in approval. Republicans and Republican-leaning independents expressed higher favorability for the VA (72%) than Democrats and Democratic leaners (61%).
A 2019 survey found veterans themselves had mixed feelings about the agency: 9% of veterans said the department was doing an excellent job meeting the needs of military veterans; 37% said the VA was doing a good job. About half said it was doing only a fair (37%) or poor (15%) job.
Americans continue to see veterans’ services as an important priority.
In a March 2019 survey, a 72% majority of U.S. adults (and identical 72% shares of Republicans and Democrats) said that if they were making the federal budget, they would increase spending for veterans’ benefits and services – the highest share of all 13 program areas included in the survey, except for education (also 72%), and the second-highest level of support for increased spending on veterans services since the Center first asked the question in 2001.
(Katherine Schaeffer. “The changing face of America’s veteran population.” Pew Research. April 5, 2021.)
Conclusions
My apologies to James Howard if he takes any offense at my investigation. I mean to caste no reflection on him or on the Times. God knows statistics can be misleading, and anyone reading them is often confused by the intent. Very often, I am guilty of taking a number for granted when I must read further for proper context.
Perhaps Mr. Howard was referring to a different statistic with the 1% figure:
(a) Combatwounded.org reported “there are more than 2.5 million post 9/11 military veterans that have served our nation, which is less than 1% of the population. 80 percent of those spent some time in an overseas combat zone.”
(b) The American Homefront Project in 2018 reported “Fewer than one percent of Americans are in the military, compared with about nine percent during World War II.” Researchers say that's helped create a divide between veterans and non-veterans.
The Washington Post (November 11, 2021) reported that the decline in the number of veterans is actually “more subtle than the decline in the density of veterans in the American population. In 1980, about 13 percent of Americans had served in the military (down slightly from 1970). In 2018, the figure was just over 5 percent. By 2040, the Census Bureau’s data suggest that it will be around 3 percent.”
On the graph above, you can see three points at which the density of veterans in the population jumped: during the conscription efforts that accompanied World War I, World War II and the Vietnam War. Those conflicts spurred the government to draft people into the military, swelling the number of service members. In 1973, the draft ended. Conflicts since have been conducted with a military made up mostly of volunteers — and have not been at nearly the scale of the world wars or the struggle in Vietnam.
This Veterans Day, national correspondent Philip Bump of The Washington Post concluded …
“The story of the veteran population in the United States is, like so many other things, a story of an increasingly aging population. It is also a story of how military service has shifted and how it might shift again.”
(Philip Bump. “Like so many other things, the veteran population is shrinking as America ages.” The Washington Post. November 11, 2021.)
I hope in some small way this investigation clears up the facts of the matter. I certainly feel better knowing that the veteran population far exceeds 1%. The actual figure of the adult population who are vets – being the age groups that seem relevant – is roughly 7%.
I salute our men and women in the Armed Forces and pray they never have to fight in a foreign war again. President Biden paid homage on Thursday to veterans, calling them the “solid steel spine” of the United States and the “soul of America” as he marked the first Veterans Day in two decades without troops engaged in an active war overseas.
Can I hear an Amen? “Amen and amen.”
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