Super Tuesday results
rocketed Vice President Joe Biden's campaign with a sudden
resurrection unparalleled in modern political history. Biden came off
the mat in South Carolina and used this momentum to sweep other
Southern states – winning the primaries in Virginia, North
Carolina, Alabama, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Texas – as
well as those in Minnesota, Massachusetts, and Maine.
Based on preliminary exit
poll data from 10 Super Tuesday states, Biden won at least 40 percent
of the late-deciding vote in every state except for Sanders’s home
state of Vermont.
How did this happen? Let's
explore reasons for the phenomenon.
1. It's hard to
remember a time when black voters have risen up to save a white
political leader. But it appears they did it Tuesday.
South Carolina suddenly
gave Biden the aura of a winner, and his Super Tuesday win came from
overwhelming African American support.
In South Carolina, one
endorsement in particular, that of Representative Jim Clyburn,
mattered most. Clyburn is the power broker in the state; his “world
famous” fish fry is a requirement for any candidate who hopes to be
competitive there. According to cable-news exit polls, 47 percent of
primary voters in the state said Clyburn’s endorsement was an
important factor in their decision making.
Clyburn is a singular
figure in politics. Few endorsements anywhere carry the weight that
the House majority whip’s does in South Carolina. Clyburn was
crucial to Biden's success the following Tuesday.
Exit polls from Super
Tuesday show Biden won 63% of black Democratic voters casting their
ballots in Virginia, 72% in Alabama and about 60% in Texas and North
Carolina.
Black voters in northern
states are different from those of the south. Southern blacks, more
moderate than their northern counterparts, overwhelmingly supported
Biden.
Biden won about seven out
of 10 black votes in Alabama and Virginia, and nearly half of all
black votes in Tennessee and North Carolina.
Biden’s strength among
black communities also made the difference in narrowly winning Texas,
where African Americans make up about one-fifth of the Democratic
primary electorate and Biden won at least three times more of their
votes than Sanders did.
(Kenya
Evelyn. “What Super Tuesday revealed about black voters: they're
not a monolith.” The Guardian. March 5, 2020.)
Biden's victory in a state
like Alabama indicates there is a significant Democratic population
looking to the 2020 race to heal America. Relationships built over
decades – including those with President Obama –foster trust. He
may not be as well-versed on issues of racial justice as other
candidates, but black voters know Joe Biden and clearly, that is more
than half the battle.
"We know Joe
Biden. He came down here and worked with us before there ever was a
Barack Obama."
– South
Carolina voter
2. Hispanic voters in
key states like Texas decided late to back Biden
Biden won 38 percent of
Hispanic voters who decided late versus just 20 percent of earlier
deciders. That kind of margin helped make a difference for Biden in
Texas, where he won by just 3 points. Hispanic voters made up about
one-third of the Texas electorate, and about a quarter of them
decided their vote in the last few days. Of those, 34 percent backed
Biden, compared to 23 percent of the earlier deciders.
3. White voters who
decided late played a key role in Biden’s success.
Each state’s electorate
was at least 80 percent white. Gary Langer, ABC’s polling guru,
reported on election night that, in aggregate data across all states
with exit polls, Biden won 52 percent of white voters who decided in
the last few days compared to just 21 percent among those who picked
a candidate earlier. That 31-point margin was the largest among any
racial or ethnic group for which sources have data. Late deciders
made a huge difference in Maine, Massachusetts and Minnesota.
4. Voters over the age
of 45 voted overwhelmingly for Biden.
But, the real insights
come from the fact that Biden dominated the 60-70% of Democratic
primary voters who describe themselves as "somewhat
liberal" or "moderate." Sanders won "very
liberal" voters consistently – which makes sense for a
self-described democratic socialist – but they only made up roughly
a quarter of Democratic primary voters.
(John
Avlon. “Bernie Sanders' ceiling and Joe Biden's 'Avengers.'”
WENY News.
March 4, 2020.)
5. Bernie Sanders
potentially hit a ceiling with new voters and the electoral map.
Bernie Sanders is getting
fewer votes in many states than he did four years ago. For example,
he won Oklahoma four years ago but lost decisively to Biden this
year. Sanders won his home state of Vermont with 50.7% of the vote --
but that was down from 86% four years before.
Biden's record and message
of building bridges hits the sweet spot between black voters and
socially conservative, religious voters of all demographics who are
using their votes not only to reject Trump policies, but also to
reject radical social change.
“Do voters want a
revolution – or a restoration?”
– Raul
A. Reyes, CNN
It appears more want a
restoration with Biden than a Sanders' revolution.
6. Democrats seemed to
finally pay serious attention to what his nomination might mean –
the number one issue for Democrats is defeating Donald Trump.
Establishment
Democrats consolidated around Biden in a serious and meaningful way
at just the right moment – contenders Pete Buttigieg and Amy
Klobuchar, both midwestern centrists – decided to bow out of the
race before Super Tuesday and throw their support behind Biden. This
group was dubbed "the moderate Avengers" on CNN's New Day
in an exchange with Wajahat Ali.
It's a reminder of why a
competent government let by experts rather than partisan crawlers
matters to people's lives. Joe Biden's big Super Tuesday reflects the
belief that Biden can beat Trump and Sanders could hurt
Democrats in swing districts. Biden showed he had the grit and the
resilience to reach deep inside himself and find his core strength –
an important asset for any political leader.
Biden Onward and
Upward?
What does the future hold
for Joe Biden? Let's be certain – he will not only need all of
these older voters, white voters, black voters, and Hispanic voters
to support him, Biden must also convince more young people and women
of all persuasions to join his quest for the presidency. Can Biden
overcome the hurdles that tripped Clinton in 2016 and motivate a
largely centrist liberal voting public to include those seeking deep
social change? I believe he must; he can; and he will.
“With plenty of
delegates still up for grabs, Sanders has time to regroup. Biden will
be under pressure to raise money and build a bigger organization
quickly, and he’ll have to continue navigating the verbal stumbles
that first caused Democrats to doubt his viability in the general
election … Michigan, which is the biggest prize on March 10, was
the site of one of Sanders’s most surprising victories over Hillary
Clinton in 2016, when he overcame a polling deficit of more than 20
points …
“An even bigger day
on the primary calendar is March 17, when Ohio, Illinois, and Florida
all weigh in. Florida is where Sanders is likely to struggle the
most: Clinton walloped him there in 2016, and his
democratic-socialist agenda is a poor fit for the state’s large
population of older people and more conservative Hispanic voters.”
(Russell
Berman and Adam Harris. “The Establishment Strikes Back.”
The
Atlantic. March 4, 2020.)
No comments:
Post a Comment