“Empires rise and
fall, populations and economies boom and bust, world religions spread
or wither … What are the mechanisms underlying such dynamical
processes in history? Are there ‘laws of history’? We do not lack
hypotheses to investigate – to take just one instance, more than
two hundred explanations have been proposed for why the Roman Empire
fell.
“But we still don’t
know which of these hypotheses are plausible, and which should be
rejected. More importantly, there is no consensus on what general
mechanisms explain the collapse of historical empires.”
– Peter
Turchin, Russian-American scientist,
specializing
in cultural evolution
Cliodynamics (from “Clio,”
the muse of history, and “dynamics,” the study of why things
change with time) is a discipline which plots historical events by a
series of mathematical measures. The discipline was developed at the
start of the century by the scientist Peter Turchin.
Those who follow Turchin
and Cliodynamics believe in a systematic application of the
scientific method to history: verbal theories should be translated
into mathematical models, precise predictions derived, and then
rigorously tested on empirical material. In short, history needs to
become an analytical, predictive science. Ultimately the aim is to
discover general principles that explain the functioning and dynamics
of actual historical societies.
What does a mathematically
driven, Cliodynamic model reveal about the general principles that
apply to the society of 2020? Let's investigate. Remember, this is a
science-based forecast, not a “prophecy.” It’s based on solid
social science. As much as you may dismiss the findings, you should
not resist the attempt to understand the present conditions in a
divided America.
According to Peter
Turchin, Cliodynamics did not predict that Donald Trump would become
the American President in 2016. But, it did predict rising social and
political instability. And, Turchin believes that unless something is
done, instability will continue to rise.
The presidential election
confirmed Turchin's forecast. The country seems to be well on track
for the 2020s instability peak. This crest of unreliability threatens
the welfare of the nation in many ways.
Turchin's model tracks a
number of factors. Some reflect developments that have been noticed
and extensively discussed:
Growing income and wealth
inequality,
Stagnating and even
declining well-being of most Americans, and
Growing political
fragmentation and governmental dysfunction.
Most social scientists and
political commentators tend to focus on a particular slice of the
problem. It’s not broadly appreciated that these developments are
all interconnected. It's this linkage that makes for the greatest
instability.
Two factors in Turchin's
model – popular immiseration (the stagnation and decline of living
standards) and the declining fiscal health of the state (resulting
from falling state revenues and rising expenses) – are very
important contributors.
However, to Turchin, one
more factor is the key to the peak of instability: most commentators
have missed the key role of “elite overproduction”
in driving waves of political violence, both in historical societies
and in our own. Cliodynamic research on past societies demonstrates
that elite overproduction is, by far, the most important of the three
main historical drivers of social instability and political violence.
Elite overproduction
generally leads to more intra-elite competition that gradually
undermines the spirit of cooperation, which is followed by
ideological polarization and fragmentation of the political class.
This happens because the more contenders there are, the more of them
end up on the losing side. A large class of disgruntled
elite-wannabes, often well-educated and highly capable, has been
denied access to elite positions.
“Intense intra-elite
competition leads to the rise of rival power networks, which
increasingly subvert the rules of political engagement to get ahead
of the opposition. Instead of competing on their own merits, or the
merits of their political platforms, candidates increasingly rely on
'dirty tricks' such as character assassination (and, in historical
cases, literal assassination).
“As a result,
excessive competition results in the unraveling of prosocial,
cooperative norms (this is a general phenomenon that is not limited
to political life). Elite overproduction in the US has already driven
up the intensity of intra-elite competition.
“Another clear sign
is the unraveling of social norms regulating political discourse and
process that has become glaringly obvious during the 2016
presidential election. Analysis of past societies indicates that, if
intra-elite competition is allowed to escalate, it will increasingly
take more violent forms. A typical outcome of this process is a
massive outbreak of political violence, often ending in a state
collapse, a revolution, or a civil war (or all of the above).”
– Peter
Turchin
In the last three or four
decades real wages of unskilled workers stagnated. The incomes of the
top one percent, on the other hand, grew explosively, leading to ever
increasing economic inequality. Signs of elite overproduction include
…
Growing demand for
educational credentials,
Tuition rates at elite
colleges that rise much faster than inflation,
Exploding numbers of new
MBA's and JD's,
Rampant polarization
within the U.S. Congress with increasing legislative deadlock, and
Declining health of government finances traced by the growth of
federal debt.
“The key to society’s
armageddon will be 'elite overproduction' in which the number of rich
grow larger while the majority of society grapples with a stagnant
standard of living and poor fiscal health. The upper echelons, too,
will be ripped apart by bitter competition with a population of
capable but angry 'elite-wannabes' who will be shut out of power.
That fissure will undermine the spirit of co-operation and cause
society to fragment further.”
– Peter
Turchin
Historical research shows
that this combination of trends is typical of historical societies
that are in the pre-crisis phase. Most historians – feeling history
is too complex and often driven by chance and individual moments –
are suspicious of Cliodynamics.
Yet, Turchin points out
how a crisis likely occurs every half-century. He calls this the
“fathers-and-sons cycle,” Also, the data of
cliodynamics defines, not one, but two trends or “endless repeating
cycles.” The longer “secular cycle” runs around
200–300 years. Here's the scenario …
“Faced with
injustice, a father takes violent action, leaving his son to deal
with the miserable aftermath. Then, his grandson starts the whole
thing over again. This 50-year cycle works alongside a much grander
'secular cycle' that takes centuries as population growth and demand
for labor leads to massive inequality and eventual downfall of
nations.”
All of this worry
generated by Cliodynamics sounds dreadful. Still, Turchin believes
awareness of our problems could help us stop them before they pitch
us over the edge.
“You certainly can’t
predict when a specific plane is going to crash, but engineers
recover the black box. They study it carefully, they find out why the
plane crashed, and that’s why so many fewer planes crash today than
used to.”
– Herbert
Gintis, American economist, behavioral scientist
What's in the “black
box” of Trump's presidency? He thrives by inciting fear in people
with a black-and-white view on the world. He agitates those with an
us-versus-them mentality that does not reflect the reality and the
complexity of everyday life. This emotionally driven
oversimplification appeals to those who flock to Trump because it
requires little thinking and tons of scapegoating. His white
nationalist agenda repeatedly rejects scientific inquiry and
understanding. Trumpers glorify their own blind allegiance.
“Our brain works on a
'what you see is all there is' -basis, meaning the less facts we know
about something, the more we believe in the few things we know about
it. That’s why so many people believe in the great promises Donald
Trump delivers with so little concrete plans because it’s easy to
understand, convenient, it’s the ever-old 'us-versus-them'
illusion.”
– Quote
of Daniel Kahneman, Israeli-American psychologist and economist, by
Philipp Markolin, editor of Advances (in biological science)
The American public can
alter the course of history at the ballot box. As Trump seeks
reelection in 2020, people can elect him and bow to more division, or
they can choose to effect a great change. Call it “a belief in Cliodynamics” or call it “an obligation to decency” that causes
people to reject the policies of Trump – either view carefully
examines the black box of an unstable autocrat.
There will undoubtedly be
a period of political turmoil after the election, no matter the
result. But, with the defeat of Trump, the ultimate human face of
elite overproduction, will no longer be in charge. We can learn from
history and understand that educating people about the past and the
danger of those with “easy solutions” is necessary. We can see
how populist … nationalist … dictators rule with propaganda and
fear as they preach instability and ignore scientific solutions that
threaten their power and influence.
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