“In the
risk scenario, there's a 50% chance of a good outcome. In the
ambiguity one, the chance of a good outcome averages out to that same
50%, but ranges from 1% to 99% – there's just no way of telling.
People vary dramatically as to how willing they are to take a risk,
and some people thrive on it. In contrast, people consistently hate
ambiguity.”
– Robert
Sapolsky, professor of biology, neurology and neurosurgery
at
Stanford University
Ambiguity and risk are
different. Professor Sapolsky says, “Suppose you have to choose
between two doors; pick the correct one and you win the lottery; pick
the wrong one and you're beaten senseless by some thugs who dump you
in an alley. That's about calculated risk. Suppose instead that you
have to choose whether to let a complete stranger decide if you win
the lottery or get beaten. That's ambiguity.”
When we consider risk, we
activate parts of our brains related to calculating odds and
executive features of decision-making, and if there's a good outcome
at the end, things feel rewarding.
In contrast, when we
wrestle with ambiguity, we activate brain regions central to anxiety
and revulsion, and if there's a good outcome, we mostly feel less
dread. While risk-taking is built on lack of control and of
predictability, with ambiguity, it's those same factors – but on
steroids.
Ambiguity and COVID-19
Sapolsky explains how
ambiguity cause us so much trouble with COVID-19.
We are used to navigating
“a world of medical risk” – vaccination risks, smoking risks,
texting while driving. We rationalize these risks and conclude bad
things won't happen to us. Sapolsky says, “While critical thinking
may take a hit amid risk, our brains unravel and run amok in the
empty moonscape of ambiguity. And that's what our pandemic world is
now.” He posits …
“Can airborne
coronavirus infect you, even if you are appropriately socially
distanced? 'Still not clear.'
“When will there be a
vaccine? 'Too early to say.'
“How long do you make
antibodies after surviving Covid-19? 'Researchers are only in the
preliminary stages of understanding that.'
“(Even more questions
and doubt) Will a second wave of sickness this winter dwarf the first
wave (as with the 1918 flu pandemic)? Why does Covid-19 ever kill a
perfectly healthy young person?”
(Robert M.
Sapolsky. “Why our brains are having so much trouble with
Covid-19.”
August 22,
2020.)
We know COVID-19 is real
and it is out there. One extreme reaction – party unmasked among
large crowds; another extreme reaction – pack up and run to the
mountain top in fear coronavirus is in every little breeze. It is
clear that ambiguity becomes an exercise in how much of a sense of
agency we can draw on.
The answer to Sapolsky is
clear:
“Take a deep, calming
breath and recognize that amid the known and unknown unknowns, we
still do know some facts about this virus and that there are things
you can do to be safer. In contrast, decide that you are helpless, a
hostage of random chance, and soon you're part of the equally huge
current tsunami of depression.
“A time like this can
make us gyrate between paralysis and impetuousness; blind us as to
whose well-being matters; drive us to a frantic search for
attribution that leads us to scapegoating. We must guard against how
ambiguity can bring out the worst in us.”
(Robert M. Sapolsky.
“Why our brains are having so much trouble with Covid-19.”
CNN. August 22, 2020.)
Ambiguous loss is tied to
changes in daily routines, missing out on planned celebrations, and
being physically separated from friends and family. The kind of grief
we are experiencing is especially challenging because it is a
reaction to the ambiguity of losing more intangible parts of our
lives. Many of us are no longer able to cleanly divide work from
home, or paid time from playtime.
Sarah B. Woods Ph.D., LMFT
says …
“Ambiguous losse
prompts an especially challenging kind of grief: It is confusing, and
disorienting, and defies popular ideas about 'closure.' In other
words, there is no clear 'end' to the current COVID-19 pandemic –
and that’s part of what makes our emotional experience of this
disease so taxing.”
(Sarah B. Woods.
“COVID-19 and Ambiguous Loss.” Psychology Today. May 08,
2020.)
Even though this pandemic
is devastatingly isolating, we must realize that the ambiguity and
grief associated with the virus are universal. We are not alone. It
will end, and by taking small, safe steps now, we can safely
“unstick” ourselves from the immobilizing nature of ambiguity.
And, maybe … just maybe … we have even discovered some new,
positive things about ourselves and our families that allow us to
build an even brighter future.
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