Saturday, August 8, 2020

Mail-In Ballots -- Trump's Unfounded Claims



"It’ll be fixed, it will be rigged. People ought to get smart. This is going to be the greatest election disaster in history."

Donald Trump, during a roundtable discussion with the leadership from the National Association of Police Organizations.

President Trump has made it clear that he does not support allowing all registered voters access to mail ballots this fall, even during a pandemic. And, he keeps changing his story about why he's opposed.

Trump has claimed ballots would be stolen out of mailboxes. He said mail-in voting would boost Democrats and prevent Republicans from winning future elections. Trump said mail-in voting would “rig the 2020 election,” and he has also claimed, without evidence, that foreign countries would print and send in “millions of mail-in ballots.”

Former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge, a Republican and also the nation's first secretary of homeland security, said …

"I think it's very sad and very disappointing that with almost five months to go, the president seems to [want to] try to delegitimize the Nov. 3 election. It just seems to me that this may be an indication he's more worried about the outcome than he's worried about fraud."

(Miles Parks. “FACT CHECK: Trump Spreads Unfounded Claims About Voting By Mail.” National Public Radio. June 22, 2020.)

Experts have told us that voter fraud via mail-in ballots is rare. Five states already conduct elections primarily by mail-invote: Utah, Colorado, Hawaii, Washington and Oregon. All of them will send registered voters a mail-in ballot in advance of the election, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures and the individual state election materials.

In Utah, all but two counties automatically sent ballots to registered voters in the 2018 elections. Republican Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah told reporters, according to ABC News: “In my state, I’ll bet 90% of us vote by mail. It works very very well and it’s a very Republican state.”

(Lori Robertson. “More False Mail-In Ballot Claims from Trump.” factcheck.org. May 27, 2020.)

The truth is Trump is planting the seeds to be able to call the electoral process rigged or fraud-ridden if he loses in November. He has even appointed Louis DeJoy postmaster general – a man who has no essential credentials, who has donated millions of dollars to Republican candidates including President Trump, and who is in charge of fundraising for the Republican National Convention.

Trump and DeJoy are busily dismantling the U.S. Postal Service at a time when more Americans rely upon the USPS for deliveries of supplies while isolating in place: everything from prescription drugs to household necessities to paychecks to absentee ballots. Dejoy has stripped the service of resources, undermining its ability to fulfill a crucial role in processing votes.

Oregon Senator Ron Wyden tweeted …

"Donald Trump is sabotaging the U.S Postal Service in an attempt to rig the election in his favor.”

Trump, earlier in the week tweeted that the post office would not be able to handle the influx of mail ballots that would result from Nevada's decision to mail every registered voter in the state a ballot.

In most states vote by mail is through absentee balloting in which the voter must request an absentee ballot. In 2016, nearly one-quarter of U.S. votes (33 million) were cast by either universal mail or absentee ballots.

34 states plus the District of Columbia now allow voters in the weeks before an election to request absentee ballots. Another 11 states have made it easier to request absentee ballots for primary elections taking place this year, in large part due to concern over the coronavirus.

As a result of COVID, there has been extensive fear about long lines and big crowds at polling places. If there continues to be public concern over the virus or there is a second infection wave in the fall, some of these states may extend their absentee voting options to the general election. States set the rules on mail balloting and election processes so they can change the rules through bills passed by the legislature and signed into law by the governor.

The Truth

States have a number of measures in place to prevent fraud. Many states allow voters to track their mail-in ballots, giving them confidence that it was received in the mail. Many states compare the signature on the ballot to the one on file with election officials, a practice, if done carefully, that can prevent fraud.

Some states restrict who can collect a mail-in ballot or even require ballots to be signed by a witness or notary (Democrats and voting rights groups are challenging these kinds of restrictions in many states, saying they are needlessly restrictive during Covid-19).

Several studies have shown that mail-in voting does not lead to more fraud. A Washington Post analysis of 14.6m votes cast in three states that automatically mail a ballot to all voters found just 372 cases of double voting or voting on behalf of a dead person. A different study of voter fraud cases maintained by the conservative Heritage Foundation found just 143 cases of criminal convictions involving absentee ballots over the last 20 years. That amounts to 0.00006% of total votes cast during that period.

(Sam Levine. “Why Trump cannot delay the election – plus the truth about mail-in voting.” The Guardian. July 30, 2020.)

Oregon, which has held all elections by mail since 2000, has only seen two criminal convictions for mail ballot fraud in the last two decades. Amber McReynolds of the National Vote at Home Institute and Charles Stewart of the MIT Election Data and Science Lab wrote in an op-ed for the Hill

With well over 50 million ballots cast [in Oregon], there have been only two fraud cases verifiable enough to result in convictions for mail ballot fraud in 20 years. “That is 0.000004 percent — about five times less likely than getting hit by lightning in the United States.”

Trump is running the largest misinformation campaign in history as he questions the legitimacy of voting by mail, a method that will be crucial to Americans casting their vote in a pandemic. See the president's campaign for what it is – one of a number of attempts to suppress the votes of Americans. Trump is actively threatening a free and fair election.

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