"Certain
viruses like influenza tend to have a seasonality. Some people think
it's humidity. Some people think it's temperature. Some people think
it's behavioral, and which of those is most important is not known.
Also, do they all matter? That's also not known. So one concern is
potentially that if we are indoors more often and more likely to
cough on each other — as a result, we could see more in-household
transmission."
– Jennifer
Nuzzo, senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security
Some health experts are
saying the United States should be looking to the Southern
Hemisphere, already deep into its winter season, to see where COVID-19 might
be heading in its first full fall and winter since coronavirus was
discovered. The unfolding dynamics of the pandemic in southern
countries may shed light on how COVID-19 and influenza will interact
in the fall.
Earlier this month, Africa
passed the 1 million mark for the number of recorded cases of
COVID-19. Australia has imposed its second lockdown in Melbourne as
cases spiked in key urban areas. The virus's progress in these colder
continents could be a precursor of horrors to come.
A search of government
statements issued by officials in the United States suggests that
little attention is being directed south. Is this a mistake?
David A. Andelman,
executive director of The RedLines Project, says …
“There are any number
of reasons the coronavirus could be spreading more rapidly in cold
weather, but without hard data, scientists are treading gingerly. For
one thing, research suggests respiratory viruses seem to transmit
more readily and droplets carrying them remain more viable in the
winter's cold weather and lower humidity.”
(David A. Andelman.
“COVID-19 spikes in South Africa, Melbourne offer America clues
ahead of winter 2020.” NBC News Think. August 17, 2020.)
A study by University of
Sydney researchers published in the journal Transboundary and
Emerging Diseases pointed out "an association between lower
humidity and an increase in locally acquired positive cases.
Researchers discovered a 1 percent decrease in humidity could
increase the number of COVID-19 cases by 6 percent."
Study lead Michael Ward
said in a press release …
"COVID-19 is
likely to be a seasonal disease that recurs in periods of lower
humidity. We need to be thinking if it's winter time, it could be
COVID-19 time."
(Michael P. Ward, Shuang Xiao, and Zhijie Zhang. “The role of
climate during the COVID‐19 epidemic in New South Wales,
Australia.” Transboundary and Emerging
Diseases.May 21, 2020.)
The risk of spreading the
coronavirus is heightened in enclosed spaces. Outdoors, there is
enough air for the virus to be “rapidly diluted,” as well as the
helpful “virus-killing action of sunlight,” explains Linsey Marr,
an engineering professor at Virginia Tech. Indoors, “the virus can
build up” and be more easily inhaled, and “if the space is
heated, it can lead to dry air,” which is more hospitable to the
virus.
(Joe Pinsker. “The
Winter Will Be Worse.” The Atlantic. August 05, 2020.)
Two Lethal Viruses
Dr. Robert Redfield,
current director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,
and Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy
and Infectious Diseases -- have said they anticipate a big uptick to
happen this fall and winter.
Much of the attention
aimed at fall has now shifted to concern over the possibility of two
potentially lethal viruses circulating at the same time -- COVID-19
and the seasonal flu, the latter of which kills around 40,000 people
in the US per year. Because of certain overlapping symptoms such as
fever and a cough, it may be harder for individuals and doctors to
immediately determine which infection you have.
Dr. Redfield warned …
"The real risk is
that we're going to have two circulating respiratory pathogens at the
same time … I do think the fall and the winter of 2020 and 2021 are
going to be probably one of the most difficult times that we've
experienced in American public health."
(Mandy Oaklander. “The
Coronavirus Plus the Flu Could Equal a Devastating Fall and Winter,
CDC Director Says.” Time. June 29, 2020.)
Flu season in the U.S.
usually arrives in October and then peaks from December to February.
Joe Pinsker reports that even though researchers don’t yet know how
severe this year’s flu season will be, this overlap is worrying for
three main reasons:
“First, even in the
absence of a pandemic, flu season can tax hospitals’ beds and
resources. Having both the flu and COVID-19 spreading at once could
further strain an already strained health-care system.
“Second, COVID
compromises the respiratory system and so does flu, so each of them
makes the other one worse,”
“And third, because
the two diseases have some symptoms in common, telling them apart can
be difficult. That in turn can hinder efforts in hospitals to
identify suspected COVID-19 cases. It also could prompt worry and
fear in people who don’t know which disease they’ve come down
with.”
(Joe
Pinsker. “The Winter Will Be Worse.” The Atlantic. August
05, 2020.)
The U.S. may still be able
to avert the most dismal predictions for winter. Ashish Jha, the
director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, says …
“I am more optimistic
that November, December, January, February are not going to be some
kind of apocalypse that looks like what life felt like in March or
April. I think we can do better than that. But it will require policy
intervention.”
According to Jha, namely:
widespread, affordable, and quick testing; strongly enforced masking
mandates; and improved ventilation in classrooms and other indoor
spaces.
“Anybody
who says we are not living in a divisive era in our country is not
paying attention, If we can somehow get the country unified together,
we could make it into the fall and winter looking good.”
– Dr.
Anthony Fauci
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