“On January 23, 2020,
the “Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists”, which takes stock of the
threats posed by nuclear war and climate change each year, moved the
Doomsday Clock to 100 seconds before midnight. We are now measuring
how close the world is to catastrophe in seconds -- not hours, or
even minutes. It is the closest to Doomsday we have ever been since
the clock was created in 1947.”
– thebulletin.org
The Bulletin of the Atomic
Scientists was founded in 1947 by those who worked on the Manhattan
Project during World War II, and now includes 13 Nobel Laureates on
the board. The Bulletin issued a statement on January 23 that read …
"Humanity
continues to face two simultaneous existential dangers—nuclear war
and climate change—that are compounded by a threat multiplier,
cyber-enabled information warfare, that undercuts society's ability
to respond. The international security situation is dire, not just
because these threats exist, but because world leaders have allowed
the international political infrastructure for managing them to
erode."
The Executive Committee of
the group is comprised of Former United Nations Secretary-General Ban
Ki-Moon, former Presdent of Ireland and United Nations High
Commissioner for Human Rights Mary Robinson, former governor of
California Jerry Brown, and former U.S. Secretary of Defense William
Perry.
Their statement of concern
acknowledges growing tensions …
“On the nuclear
threat, we've seen unprecedented brinksmanship over the past 12
months by half a dozen nations, the termination of major arms control
agreements, a dizzying proliferation of nuclear weapons, and an
unsettling amount of loose talk about the mistaken idea that limited
nuclear warfare is somehow possible or 'winnable.'”
Other recent developments
have added to the threat. The Bulletin says …
“We share a common
concern over the failure of the multilateral system to address the
existential threats we face. From the US' withdrawal from the Paris
Agreement and the Iran nuclear deal, to the deadlock at nuclear
disarmament talks and division at the UN Security Council – our
mechanisms for collaboration are being undermined when we need them
the most.”
The group also expressed
anxiety about the lack of activism and action by national governments
on the major threat of climate change and cyber-enabled
disinformation sowing distrust in “science, institutions, and
nations.”
The Doomsday Clock is a
symbol that represents the likelihood of a man-made global
catastrophe. The Clock is a metaphor for threats to humanity from
unchecked scientific and technical advances. It represents the
hypothetical global catastrophe as "midnight" and the
Bulletin's opinion on how close the world is to a global catastrophe
as a number of "minutes" to midnight, assessed in January
of each year.
Be it a nuclear war,
climate change, or some other man-made catastrophe, there exists a
real possibility that devastation of the planet is possible … and,
even more frightening is that it is well on its
way.
In 1947, during the Cold
War, the Clock was started at seven minutes to midnight. "Midnight"
has a deeper meaning to it besides the constant threat of war.
Scientists decide what “Midnight” and "global catastrophe"
really mean in a particular year.
The Clock is not set and
reset in real time as events occur; rather than respond to each and
every crisis as it happens, the Science and Security Board meets
twice annually to discuss global events in a deliberative manner. The
closest nuclear war threat, the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, reached
crisis, climax, and resolution before the Clock could be set to
reflect that possible doomsday.
The Doomsday Clock is not
a forecasting tool. Instead, it reflects events that have already
occurred and existing trends. The Science and Security Board tracks
numbers and statistics – looking, for example, “at the number and
kinds of nuclear weapons in the world, the parts per million of
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the degree of acidity in our
oceans, and the rate of sea level rise.” The board also takes
account of “leaders’ and citizens’ efforts to reduce dangers,
and efforts by institutions – whether of governments, markets, or
civil society organizations – to follow through on negotiated
agreements.”
Reasons For the Real
and Present Danger
The Bulletin of the Atomic
Scientists reports the board's decision to move the clock less than a
full minute – something it has never before done – is because …
"Disturbing
comments about the use and proliferation of nuclear weapons made by
Donald Trump, as well as the expressed disbelief in the overwhelming
scientific consensus on climate change by both Trump and several of
his cabinet appointees, affected the Board's decision, as did the
emergence of strident nationalism worldwide."
Other influencing factors
listed in the BPA report include “doubts over the future of the
Iran nuclear deal, threats to cyber security and the rise of fake
news.”
The board's decision to
move the clock less than a full minute - something it has never
before done - is because Trump has only recently taken office and
many of his cabinet nominations are not installed in government.
The Doomsday Clock is not
just some outlandish and theoretical timetable. It is a time line for
humanity, and an agitation for change before it is too late.
Journalist David Grossman appropriately asserted: “The Clock is one
of the rarest things available to scientists: an easily recognizable
icon that can grab a passerby with no scientific background.”
Moreover, it isn't aiming for total accuracy. Instead, it's a symbol
of global threats, and a way to inform the public about threats to
the survival and development of humanity.
Do
you take the Clock literally? If you review recent developments once
more, you may find credence in this symbol of awareness. Those recent
reinforcements for the move closer to midnight again …
Termination of major
arms agreements,
Proliferation of
nuclear weapons,
Climate change,
Cyber-enabled
information warfare,
Division at the UN
Security Council,
Unsettling amount of
loose talk
The present threatening
situation makes me think of a Chambers Brothers song from 1966 –
“Time Has Come Today.” It seems old lyrics often come around
again to give us new insights.
“Time has come
today
Young hearts can go their way
Can't put it off another day
I don't care what others say
They say we don't listen anyway
Time has come today”
Young hearts can go their way
Can't put it off another day
I don't care what others say
They say we don't listen anyway
Time has come today”
From “Time Has Come
Today” by the Chambers Brothers
“Tic-toc” … the
relentless rhythm can be an foreboding sound.
No comments:
Post a Comment